Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the SPDR— MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF (Symbol: QUS), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $140.67 per unit.
With QUS trading at a recent price near $127.74 per unit, that means that analysts see 10.12% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of QUS’s underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are (Symbol: RIVN), Allegion plc (Symbol: ALLE), and Mondelez International Inc (Symbol: MDLZ). Although RIVN has traded at a recent price of $115.40/share, the average analyst target is 18.32% higher at $136.54/share. Similarly, ALLE has 15.62% upside from the recent share price of $130.89 if the average analyst target price of $151.33/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting MDLZ to reach a target price of $70.25/share, which is 15.18% above the recent price of $60.99. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of RIVN, ALLE, and MDLZ:
Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
| Name | Symbol | Recent Price | Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target | % Upside to Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPDR— MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF | QUS | $127.74 | $140.67 | 10.12% |
| RIVN | $115.40 | $136.54 | 18.32% | |
| Allegion plc | ALLE | $130.89 | $151.33 | 15.62% |
| Mondelez International Inc | MDLZ | $60.99 | $70.25 | 15.18% |
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock’s trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
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