Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week at new 2023 highs but still dividing opinion after a blistering price rally.
In what is shaping up to be the antidote to last year’s slow bleed lower, January has delivered the volatility Bitcoin bulls were hoping for — but can they sustain it?
This is the key question for market participants going into the third week of the month.
Opinion remains divided on Bitcoin’s fundamental strength; some believe outright that the march to two-month highs is a “sucker’s rally,” while others are hoping that the good times will continue — at least for the time being.
Beyond market dynamics, there is no shortage of potential catalysts waiting to assert themselves on sentiment.
United States economic data will keep coming, while corporate earnings could deliver some fresh volatility to stock markets this week.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential BTC price movers as all eyes focus on new support levels and the fate of the Bitcoin bear market.
BTC price due consolidation, analysts agree
Bitcoin has faced increasing skepticism after passing some key resistance levels throughout the past week.
As Cointelegraph reported, consensus remains skewed to the bearish side long term, with few believing that current momentum will end up any more than a bear market rally.
With warnings of new macro lows of $12,000 still in force, Bitcoin is being keenly watched for signs of a comedown. So far, however, this has not materialized.
The weekly close tied with those from just before the FTX demise, and at the time of writing, BTC/USD was still above $20,000, having hit new local highs of $21,411 overnight, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
Volatility remained in action, with moves of several hundred dollars commonplace on hourly timeframes. A flash dip below the $21,000 mark at the time of writing was described by commentator Tedtalksmacro as a “liquidity hunt.”
Analyzing levels to hold in the event of a broader retracement, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators identified the 21-week moving average (MA) at $18,600.
“Another $11M bid wall placed to defend the Bitcoin 2017 Top,” it noted alongside an additional chart of the Binance order book.
“Holding above that level is symbolic and increases the probability of extending the rally, but IMO holding the 21-Week MA is critical for a sustained rally. TradFi is closed Monday for MLK Day. Volatility continues.”
A previous post added that whale activity was indeed helping to buoy the market on exchanges.
Eyeing the reversal of FTX losses, meanwhile, trading account Stockmoney Lizards called for “a little (sideways) consolidation” at current levels.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, said that Bitcoin may indeed consolidate as a result of changes in flagging U.S. dollar strength.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) still traded near its lowest levels since early June 2022 on the day, having hit 107.77.
Focus shifts to earnings as stocks catalyst
This week will get off to a brisk start in terms of macro data, with producer price inflation (PPI) data coming on Jan. 18.
This will come amid various speeches from Federal Reserve officials, while stocks will likely be swayed by another phenomenon in the form of corporate earnings reporting through the week.
As noted by Bank of America strategists in a note last week, the S&P 500 has become particularly sensitive to earnings, these even overtaking classic data releases such as the consumer price index (CPI) in terms of impact.
“We see this as a narrative shift in the market from the Fed and inflation to earnings: reactions to earnings have been increasing, while reactions to inflation data and FOMC meetings have been getting smaller,” they wrote, quoted by media outlets including CNBC.
The strategists referred to the upcoming meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which on Feb. 1 will decide on interest rate hikes.
These are currently expected to be lower than any since early 2022, with sentiment favoring a 0.25% increase, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“The lower the Fed Funds, the more liquidity there is in the system,” Ram Ahluwalia, CEO of digital asset investment advisor Lumida Wealth Management, wrote in part of research last week.
An accompanying chart showed what Ahluwalia suggested was a beneficial relationship between lower Fed funds rates and Bitcoin liquidity.
He continued by referencing an appearance on mainstream media by veteran economist Larry Summers on Jan. 13, in which the latter made positive noises about inflation abating.
“Larry made a statement saying the Fed’s fight against inflation is ‘much, much closer to being done.’ This is a ‘positive surprise’ to risk assets and supports the Fed pivot…
cointelegraph.com