‘$31K was not the end’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June in familiar territory, but a breakout is coming, investors say.

After a calm weekly close, BTC/USD is firmly in its established trading range, while under the hood, market participants are preparing for some dramatic shifts.

It has been a long time coming, and for seasoned traders, the signs are increasingly pointing to volatility making a comeback.

There is little by way of macroeconomic triggers due this week, making the focus shift elsewhere for cues as to what BTC price action might do in the short term.

The on-chain analysis provides other interesting insights, reinforcing the idea that for Bitcoin currently, the only “boring” part is the spot price.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the key factors at play as BTC/USD hovers around $27,000 for another week.

Weekly close preserves key trend line

BTC/USD may not have inspired with its latest weekly close, but some popular traders are seeing fresh cause for optimism.

Despite remaining firmly in its narrow trading range, as confirmed by from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the chances of a breakout toward $30,000 are increasing.

“Feels like it’s a matter of time until Bitcoin finally breaks that 30k level once and for all,” trader Jelle wrote in part of his latest analysis.

Jelle, like others, noted that the 200-week moving average (MA) — a key support line — remained intact.

Also intact were various support structures on trader and analyst Rekt Capital’s radar covering daily timeframes.

“So far, so good,” he summarized about the potential for an exit higher, potentially invalidating a bearish “head and shoulders” structure from the weeks prior.

#BTC successfully retesting not just the top of the red downtrending channel but also the bottom of the red box

So far, so good$BTC #Crypto #bitcoin https://t.co/a0VCL61Qvm pic.twitter.com/V7SnIMlpJZ

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 4, 2023

An additional tweet mentioned a “successful retest” of support in the offing.

“BTC broke down from a head and shoulders pattern in May. But there’s classic whipsaw action around the neckline,” trading account Game of Trades nonetheless acknowledged.

“The pattern remains valid unless the price moves above the right shoulder.”

An accompanying chart gave a potential downside target of just $24,000 for BTC/USD as a result of the head and shoulders event.

Others looked for less movement, such as trader Crypto Tony, who eyed $25,300 as a possible destination, subject to $28,350 staying unflipped as resistance.

$BTC / $USD – June / July plan

So right now we are consolidating following the drop from the 14th April high. I am looking for

– $25,300 target to look for longs
– Must remain below $28,350 for the downside target
– Combo corrective pattern

I will update daily as always pic.twitter.com/Q93mr4hjGH

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) June 4, 2023

Macro lull comes as traders eye dollar rebound

In an unusual week of calm for traders, June 5 through June 9 will see little by way of macroeconomic data come out of the United States.

With the debt ceiling debacle left behind, the next potential volatility catalysts will come in the form of macro reports for May, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print — these nonetheless not due for another week.

With that, attention is focusing on oil production cuts from Opec+ members, as prices continue to fall despite existing reductions in output.

A more direct potential headwind for Bitcoin and crypto, meanwhile, comes in the form of the U.S. dollar.

The strength of the greenback has been forming a rebound since the start of May, and since then, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) — traditionally inversely correlated with risk assets — has gained around 3.5%.

Popular analyst Matthew Hyland noted increasing relative strength index (RSI) scores for DXY on weekly timeframes.

DXY Weekly opens: pic.twitter.com/nRIGyKm4tl

— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) June 4, 2023

Fellow trader Skew flagged 104.7%, the current June high, as a key level to close above to form a bullish DXY trend.

“Strong close & moving higher in early EU trading session,” he commented on the day.

“If USD closes above $104.7, I would consider that as USD strength. So far this looks risk off but we see later on.”

$DXY 1D
Strong close & moving higher in early EU trading session.

if USD closes above $104.7, I would consider that as USD strength.

So far this looks risk off but we see later on. https://t.co/F28baIv2JV pic.twitter.com/3SLDs5wtos

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) June 5, 2023

Over the weekend, meanwhile, TraderSZ described DXY as “bullish until proven otherwise.”

Stocks buoy bullish crypto case

The debt ceiling resolution had an immediate cathartic effect on equities, but crypto markets have broadly failed to copy their enthusiasm.

This may…