Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first week of July with a sigh of relief for traders as $30,000 support holds.
BTC price action refuses to succumb to bears after 20% gains in Q2, with weekly and monthly timeframes looking strong. What’s next?
A quiet week is expected on TradFi markets, with Wall Street gearing up for the Independence Day holiday and little in store in terms of United States macroeconomic data.
Bitcoin thus needs volatility triggers from elsewhere if bulls are to have a shot at breaching resistance in place for several months.
Views among market participants are mixed on that topic — some believe that $32,000 and higher is easily achievable, while others consider this month as the peak of Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery.
Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the major factors set to influence BTC price performance in the coming days and weeks.
Short-term BTC price upside calls extend to $40,000
Bitcoin’s weekly close was convenient for bulls, offering only modest volatility, with BTC/USD continuing higher overnight.
The new week thus saw a visit to $30,850 on Bitstamp, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView — the latest attempt to act closer to the $31,000 mark and the yearly highs.
Fuel for a trend change nonetheless remains absent, leading more optimistic traders to wait and see when it comes to upside continuation.
“My Bitcoin plan remains the same,” popular trader Jelle summarized to Twitter followers in part of his latest analysis.
“Market structure is bullish, we’ve reclaimed the 200-week EMA. Once we the $32k resistance area, I expect the bull market kicks off. Until then, we trade the range and buy deeper pullbacks.”
Jelle referred to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which together with its counterpart simple moving average (SMA) continue to act as market support after a brief challenge in June.
An accompanying chart showed the first major upside target as the current all-time high at $69,000.
Fellow trader Crypto Ed hoped for a push toward $36,000 and even $40,000, while considering the likelihood of a retracement to $28,000 — already a popular dip-buying zone — first.
Market structure, he said, remained “good” despite last-minute volatility into the end of the month, with BTC/USD wicking to $29,500.
# BTC following my plan for $36+40k so far….
Nice reactions Friday on red and green box.In my next YT update I’ll explain what I expect from here. 1 more ABC down towards 28k, or up only?
Should be online around 10am CET. pic.twitter.com/Xu13Ra0mP5
— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) July 3, 2023
On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile noted Bitcoin whales’ role in maintaining the BTC price range.
#FireCharts shows Purple Whales have been buying dips and distributing through the range, and Brown Mega Whales buying into liquidity at resistance to elevate the range.
Historically, Purple Whales have had the most influence over #Bitcoin PA.
Use Promo Code MIJ4TH for 25%… pic.twitter.com/QE1UDypKHZ
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 3, 2023
“No question BTC whales have been distributing in the $30k range, but they’ve also been buying the dips which have helped keep BTC in this range,” part of further analysis added.
As Cointelegraph reported, July has never seen more than 10% losses for BTC price, but this is not stopping one popular trader, CryptoBullet, forecasting an end to bullish moves this month.
Predicting the area around $36,000 as the local top, CryptoBullet predicts that downside — including giving up the key moving averages — will come next.
“I’m not saying we’ll dip to 20k this or next month. Imo it will happen in Q4,” he wrote in subsequent Twitter comments on his original prediction.
Banks in focus over bond-buying losses
The macroeconomic climate looks set to be mercifully calm this week as the U.S. centers on the July 4 Independence Day holiday.
Little macroeconomic data is due, and barring curveball events, crypto should receive little volatility from sources such as changing inflation expectations.
Those expectations remain anchored in interest rate hikes returning later this month, however, when the Federal Reserve meets to decide on future policy.
As of July 3, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a 0.25% hike at nearly 90%. The decision is due in three weeks’ time.
“Every week feels pivotal as Fed rate expectations shift rapidly. Meanwhile, stocks are pushing 52-week highs and trading has been great,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized about the mood, calling the coming week “short but important.”
Elsewhere, increasing attention is being paid to the U.S. banking sector.
Regional banks continue to struggle, as evidenced by the performance of the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX).
Is this the most important chart today ?
⚠️The…
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