Oil Prices Rise as Investors Assess OPEC+ Decision

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has delayed its planned production increase by three months, pushing it to April.

On Thursday, oil prices rose slightly as investors weighed the prospects of ample supply next year against the impact of OPEC+’s decision. Brent crude climbed 16 cents, or 0.22%, to $72.47 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate USOIL gained 14 cents, or 0.2%, reaching $68.68 per barrel.

USOIL

Initially set to begin in October 2024, the easing of production cuts was repeatedly postponed due to slowing global demand and rising output from other countries. Despite doubts about internal unity, OPEC+ emerged from its latest meeting unified, signaling a challenging supply landscape as it seeks to stabilize the market.

The gradual rollback of production cuts, totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), will start in April with monthly increments of 138,000 bpd, according to estimates. The process will span 18 months, concluding in September 2026. Currently, OPEC+ accounts for about half of global oil production.

Oil Outlook

The decision sends a bullish signal to the market, likely preventing any short-term price declines. However, analysts cautioned that an expected surge in supply by 2025 could offset the support provided by Thursday’s decision.

Additionally, a cooling U.S. dollar lent some support to prices on Thursday. Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month are anticipated to further weaken the dollar, bolstering oil markets.

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.