ADA, DOGE Retreat, Ignoring the Cardano and Dogecoin ETF Buzz

Ada and Doge coin tried to make a bullish reversal last week, but they failed to make the bullish break and started to turn lower during the weekend.

Dogecoin experienced a massive rally following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election in November, soaring nearly 400% from $0.10 to an all-time high of almost $0.50 by early December. However, the momentum was short-lived, as the meme coin retraced nearly 50% of its value by late December. Buyers briefly returned in January, pushing DOGE/USD to $0.45, above the 50-day SMA (yellow), but the gains were unsustainable. A sharp sell-off hit two weeks ago after the release of DeepSeek, sending DOGE tumbling alongside major tech stocks.

Dogecoin Chart Daily – Volatile Ride Amid ETF Speculation

By early February, Dogecoin had dropped to $0.20, falling below the 200-day SMA (purple), but quickly rebounded, preventing a daily close under this key level. The 200-day SMA has since acted as a strong support, with DOGE starting to climb after Grayscale filed for a Dogecoin ETF. However, bullish momentum stalled over the weekend at the 20-day SMA (gray), triggering another reversal lower.

Meanwhile, the SEC’s review process for crypto ETFs, including Dogecoin, is now underway, lasting up to 240 days, with a final decision expected by mid-October 2025. Analysts estimate a 75% chance of approval before the year ends, as the regulatory landscape shifts in favor of digital assets. The SEC has already passed preliminary reviews on select cryptocurrencies, increasing the likelihood of institutional adoption.

Cardano Chart Daily – ETF Hype Fails to Sustain Rally

Last week, multiple crypto-based ETFs were filed by major investment firms, including Grayscale. One of the most notable was the GADA ETF, a Cardano-based fund, marking a significant step for ADA’s institutional adoption. The announcement fueled a 30% surge in Cardano’s native token, ADA, pushing its price from $0.66 to $0.83. However, buyers struggled to maintain momentum, with the rally stalling at the 20-day SMA, preventing further upside.

Whale activity continues to play a crucial role in Cardano’s market dynamics. According to Santiment data, addresses holding over 1 million ADA have been steadily accumulating tokens over the past 15 months, now controlling 2.35% of the total circulating supply. This persistent whale accumulation signals confidence in Cardano’s long-term growth, despite its recent struggle to break key resistance levels.

While the crypto market remains optimistic about ETF approvals and institutional interest, both Dogecoin and Cardano face immediate resistance levels that could determine their short-term direction.

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.