WTI crude (USOIL) has plunged to $59.66, marking its sharpest monthly decline since 2021. April alone saw a 16% drop in WTI and a 15% fall in Brent, a
WTI crude (USOIL) has plunged to $59.66, marking its sharpest monthly decline since 2021. April alone saw a 16% drop in WTI and a 15% fall in Brent, as the oil market buckled under the weight of renewed geopolitical tensions and mounting economic headwinds.
The immediate catalyst? A full-scale U.S.-China trade war, reignited by President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. China responded with retaliatory measures, intensifying concerns over global demand destruction. The result: a broad risk-off sentiment across commodities.
Adding to the pressure, U.S. consumer confidence has tumbled to a five-year low, and China’s factory output is shrinking at its fastest pace in 16 months. According to ANZ strategist Daniel Hynes, early signs of demand resilience were likely driven by pre-tariff stockpiling—a temporary boost that’s now reversing.
Rising Supply Amplifies the Bear Case
It’s not just demand that’s weighing on oil. Supply-side pressures are compounding the selloff. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 3.8 million barrel build in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of oversupply.
To make matters worse, OPEC+ is reportedly considering an output hike at its May 5 meeting, a move that could flood the market further just as demand falters.
Although Trump’s recent easing of auto tariffs has offered a glimmer of relief, analysts caution that political efforts to curb inflation by keeping fuel prices low may continue to pressure oil prices in the short term.
Technical Breakdown: WTI Slides into Bear Territory
From a technical perspective, WTI’s clean break below $60.35 confirms bearish momentum. The next support sits at $59.19, a critical level that, if breached, could accelerate downside pressure.
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MACD has crossed into bearish territory
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50-day EMA at $61.71 now acts as resistance
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Price action suggests fading momentum with lower highs forming
Key Levels to Watch:
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Support: $59.19, $58.22, $57.15
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Resistance: $60.35, $61.71
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