Welcome to Trade Secrets. This month, we’re talking to top crypto analysts about where Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are going in the year ahead.
The Bulls
Bag Check: Bitcoin, Solana, Hyperliquid
Bitcoin’s best case is $250,000 in 2025: Charles Edwards
Bitcoin reclaimed the $100,000 price level on May 8 for the first time in over three months, so where is it headed by the end of the year?
According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, Bitcoin reaching $250,000 is the “best case” for 2025.
Edwards bases his forecast on a metric called the Bitcoin Energy Value, which is a model that prices Bitcoin based on the energy used to mine it. “It can be very accurately tracked by using the known hashrates and the hardware efficiency of Bitcoin mining rigs,” Edwards tells Magazine.
Edwards explains that the metric has tracked Bitcoin’s fair value since its inception, and its price “has always mean-reverted to it.”
Edwards notes that Energy Value is currently at $130,000, but in previous cycles, momentum “and mania” drove Bitcoin’s price up to six times EV in 2017 and three times EV in 2021.
“So, given the market is much bigger now and more efficient, I think the best case for 2025 would be 2x EV, or around $250,000,” he explains.
Edwards says that would also require no more surprise tariff scares from US President Donald Trump and for the Federal Reserve’s policies being “pro-risk assets and pro-liquidity into the back end of the year.”
“I think we are starting to see some Bitcoin treasury flywheel effects play out already, which could go exponential as companies seek to replicate the (Micro)Strategy playbook,” Edwards says.
Edwards isn’t the only one eyeing that $250,000 Bitcoin target for 2025.
In April, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 in 2025 if the US Federal Reserve pivots to quantitative easing. Meanwhile, in November 2024, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ researcher Tom Lee gave a 12-month deadline for $250,000 Bitcoin.
Solana “may surpass” $500 by the year-end: Cole Kennelly
Solana could triple in price by the end of 2025 if its adoption rate gains momentum again, says Volmex Labs founder and CEO Cole Kennelly.
“SOL price may surpass $500 by the end of 2025, exceeding $250+ billion in network market cap,” Kennelly tells Magazine.
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Kennelly argues that Solana is the “premier world computer powering a variety of decentralized applications with a single global atomic state.” He predicts that growing stablecoin use such as USDT and USDC and an upswing in the broader DeFi sector, specifically derivatives products, will catalyze demand for SOL.
Kennelly’s price prediction matches the same 2025 target that VanEck projected for Solana back in December 2024.
Another big boost for Solana this year could come if the US regulators approve Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On April 30, Bloomberg Intelligence boosted its estimated odds of this happening to 90%.
However, as we saw with Ether, crypto ETF launches do not guarantee that the asset will skyrocket. While Bitcoin surged 73% in the following two months after spot Bitcoin ETFs launched to reach new all-time highs, Ether dropped 36% in the two months after its July 2024 launch.
HYPE giving exchanges a “run for their money”: Ben Simpson
Collective Shift CEO Ben Simpson tells Magazine he’s keeping an eye on the native token of decentralized exchange Hyperliquid (HYPE) for the rest of the year, saying the outlook is bullish, but he’s not ready to slap a price target on it just yet.
“No price targets, but it’s doing really well as a revenue-generating layer 1,” Simpson tells Magazine. Launched in December 2024, Hyperliquid’s layer-1 blockchain, HyperEVM, managed to surpass Solana in seven-day fees by the week of February 27.
Simpson says the layer 1 is keeping major crypto exchanges on their toes.
“It’s built for derivatives, so it’s competing against major exchanges and giving them a run for their money by generating revenue on the platform and giving a share back to tokenholders. One I’m bullish on for this cycle,” Simpson says.
The Bears
Bag check: Bitcoin Classic, Ethereum Classic, Bitcoin Cash, World
Michaël van de Poppe is bearish on all “the Classic coins”
The OG spin-off tokens, Bitcoin Classic…
cointelegraph.com