Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the July monthly close eyeing $120,000 as a BTC price rebound holds firm.
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BTC price action is giving market participants cause to expect all-time highs again, but the threat of a $113,000 comedown remains.
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A giant week of US macro data combines with the Fed meeting on interest rates amid pressure on Chair Jerome Powell.
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The US-EU trade deal provides an instant boost for risk assets, including a record open for S&P 500 futures.
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Bitcoin’s performance in July 2025 may feel impressive, but it still has a way to go to stand out against historical norms.
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Stablecoin liquidity suggests that bulls may need to wait before getting the momentum necessary to reenter price discovery.
Bitcoin bulls running at $120,000
A late-week surge placed Bitcoin price action within striking distance of $120,000, but momentum ultimately failed to follow through.
Despite that, BTC/USD managed to hold the area around $119,000, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, emboldening market participants to expect further upside next.
“If Bitcoin can tighten up and hold over $117,000 then i think we are good for new ATHs very soon,” popular trader Crypto Tony forecast in a post on X Monday.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin had “kickstarted” a bull flag with its $119,450 weekly close.
“In which case turning ~$119200 into support via a retest could occur next week (maybe even via a wick),” he told X followers alongside an explanatory chart.
“However, for the moment BTC needs to avoid an upside wick beyond the Bull Flag Top resistance otherwise price would stay in the Range.”
On Sunday, Cointelegraph reported on traders’ liquidity expectations for the coming days. Exchange order books showed two key zones above and below the price, with analysis seeing the potential for a return toward $113,000.
“For $BTC, we’re sitting at about 58.7% longs stacked against 41.3% shorts. That means there’s a decent amount of fuel for a move up if shorts get flushed, but not an overwhelming amount that screams ‘squeeze incoming,’ analyst TheKingfisher argued while examining liquidations.
“It’s balanced enough that we could see more chop until one side really commits.”
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows bid liquidity laddered between $116,800 and $118,300.
FOMC week begins with Powell in focus
If much of July was relatively quiet in terms of US macroeconomic data, the tables are about to turn.
The Federal Reserve interest-rate decision forms the highlight of the coming days, but this is far from the only point of interest for risk-asset traders.
Q2 GDP is due just hours before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. The day after, the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, will be released.
“We have a massive week ahead of us,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.
Kobeissi added that corporate earnings will continue to pour in, creating “the most data-packed week of the year.”
That data comes at a crucial time for markets. The ongoing divide between government expectations and Fed policy continues to boil over into the public eye, with President Donald Trump actively calling on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
🇺🇸 JUST IN: Jerome Powell tells allies he won’t resign despite Trump’s pressure to slash interest rates. pic.twitter.com/KWw42wb9mB
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 25, 2025
Powell has remained hawkish throughout 2025 as inflation data continues to paint a mixed picture — cooling costs with a resilient labor market — allowing the Fed to maintain current policy.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool confirms that markets see hardly any chance of a rate cut emerging from the FOMC this week, with bets still favoring the September meeting.
“While the July meeting is widely expected to see no change in rates, investors will be looking for clues on rate cuts during the remaining meetings of the year,” trading firm Mosaic Asset confirmed in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Fears over inflation will continue to be a restraining factor on the outlook, with evidence of tariffs impacting the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.”
Mosaic referred to the June CPI print coming in above expectations.
US trade deal progress sparks risk-asset rally
Balancing the myriad volatility risks from macro data is good news for markets more broadly: the US sealing a trade deal with the EU and Japan, while delaying implementation of tariffs on China for another 90 days.
🔥 TODAY: The US and EU struck a major…
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