Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with a fresh sell-off, and traders are split over where BTC will head next.
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BTC price action has dipped $10,000 since its latest all-time high just days ago, leading to comparisons with the 2021 top.
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Order-book manipulation may be to blame, analysis argues — a large entity may be “buying the dip.”
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The US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium is due, with the US inflation fight contrasting with hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace settlement.
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Bitcoin hodlers may have less time to enjoy gains as the latest uptrend enters its seventh week.
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In a “strange” development, BTC price weakness is diverging from a positive Coinbase premium.
Bitcoin price has “reduced” breakout odds this week
A swift sell-off disturbed a calm weekly close for BTC/USD on Monday, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
Just days after its latest all-time high above $124,500, the pair shed 2% in hours, bringing its total drawdown since the peak to over $10,000.
Commenting on the current market structure, traders were quick to call new local lows in the coming days.
Rising wedge playing out as expected. I have shared this scenario for a few days now. pic.twitter.com/cWbO7UNweq
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) August 18, 2025
Trading platform Material Indicators even dismissed Bitcoin possibly holding its 21-day simple moving average (SMA), flagging a “pretty solid” down signal on one of its proprietary trading tools.
“That doesn’t guarantee a nuke, but it drastically reduces the probability of a $BTC breakout this week,” it wrote in part of its latest post on X.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades gave $112,000 as the BTC price level to watch to the downside, as well as a break of $120,000 in the event of a reversal.
“These early week moves do have the tendency to retrace but let’s see how the US Market does today,” he told X followers.
Some were more concerned about the long-term impact of recent price behavior. Fellow trader Roman, long wary of market weakness, stressed that low volume had failed to cement the latest highs.
“Now $BTC is down $10,000 from prior highs. The lack of volume has been extremely concerning for the past few months,” he concluded.
“To me it’s distribution. Everything still lining up like 2021.”
Roman referred to Bitcoin’s last bull market, which ended in late 2021 after a blow-off top at $69,000 — a level that remained as resistance for several years and which triggered the start of a 77% bear market drawdown.
Analysis sees manipulation and “buying the dip”
While crypto market manipulation is rarely considered positive, Bitcoin may be experiencing undue sell-side pressure, which is not reflective of true demand.
This is the conclusion from popular trader CrypNuevo, who in his latest X thread argued that the snap BTC price dip was anything but organic.
“Bitcoin made a new ATH, but then a manipulated organized move dumped price causing $1B in liquidations in 24h. At the same time that retail was getting stopped out & liquidated… a hand bought all those liquidations,” he summarized.
A large-volume buyer on crypto exchange HTX, CrypNuevo argues, is simply attempting to buy in at lower levels before the uptrend continues.
“It’s probable that they ‘stopped the train’ to get a few more buys before it goes again. So it’s possible that we see some consolidation, maybe choppy PA, for some days before reclaiming again that $120k level,” he continued.
“Once price can sustain above $120k, we should see a good move up.”
Exchange order-book data from CoinGlass shows how price sliced through bid liquidity, with $114,000 the area of interest at the time of writing.
Jackson Hole meets Ukraine peace hopes
This week, the Federal Reserve’s annual policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is the event on every trader’s calendar.
Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday in what promises to be a risky climax for market uncertainty over future policy — specifically, interest rates.
“Investor attention will be fixated on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, and how the Fed is viewing the balance of risks between recent weak labor market data and rising inflation,” trading firm Mosaic Asset confirmed in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Past speeches by Powell have delivered insights on the metrics that central bank officials are tracking to make policy decisions.”
🇺🇸 UPDATE: Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on Friday, Aug. 22 at 10:00 A.M. ET on economic outlook and framework review. pic.twitter.com/CU7BRxC7D8
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) August 18, 2025
The Fed is caught between rising inflation and…
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