Quick overview
- Cautious optimism in markets as investors await Friday’s U.S. jobs report amidst mixed economic data.
- The S&P 500 reached a record closing level, buoyed by a positive surprise in the ISM services index.
- Attention shifts to upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, with expectations of job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate.
- Cryptocurrencies remain volatile, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing significant price fluctuations but showing signs of recovery.
Live BTC/USD Chart
BTC/USD
Thursday saw a wave of cautious optimism as investors processed conflicting economic data and focused on Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Yesterday’s Market Recap
This week’s flow of U.S. data has painted a picture of an economy that is cooling, but not collapsing. Earlier in the week, the JOLTS survey and Beige Book signaled slowing momentum, while the ADP employment report came in softer than expected. By contrast, Thursday’s ISM services index delivered a mild positive surprise, pointing to steady demand in the largest segment of the economy.
Stocks Soared Again
The equity market took encouragement from this combination. The S&P 500 staged a strong intraday recovery, reversing early losses to finish at 6,202—its highest closing level on record and just shy of the all-time intraday high set in late August. The Dow also gained nearly 1 percent, while the U.S. dollar clawed back ground, erasing the previous day’s losses against the yen. The modest strength in the greenback reflected growing confidence that the Federal Reserve remains on track to ease policy in 2025, with markets now leaning toward multiple rate cuts.
Key Market Events Today
UK Retail Sales in View
Attention in Europe will first fall on the delayed release of July retail sales from the United Kingdom. Forecasts suggest a slowdown in both monthly and annual growth, underscoring that retailers are still struggling to absorb higher costs imposed by recent budget changes. Even modest growth may not be enough to offset the squeeze on margins, highlighting the fragility of consumer demand.
Focus on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
The main event arrives and it was another weak figure, which has the market convinced for a 25 bps cut in September, sending the S&P 500 to a new record high before pulling back again.
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report
- Non-Farm Payrolls: +22K (vs. +75K expected; prior +73K)
- Private Payrolls: +38K (vs. +75K expected; prior +83K)
- Manufacturing Payrolls: -12K (vs. -5K expected; prior -11K)
- Government Payrolls: -16K (vs. -10K prior)
Labor Market Conditions
- Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (in line with expectations; prior 4.2%)
- U6 Underemployment: 8.1% (vs. 7.7% prior)
- Labor Force Participation: 62.2% (vs. 62.3% prior)
Wages & Hours
- Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): +0.3% (in line; prior +0.3%)
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): +3.7% (in line; prior +3.9%)
- Average Workweek: 34.2 hours (vs. 34.3 expected; prior 34.3)
Revisions
- Two-Month Net Revision: -22K jobs
Canadian Labor Data
Canada will also release its employment figures, which are set to influence the Bank of Canada’s policy stance. The central bank left interest rates at 2.75 percent in July, the midpoint of its neutral range, and policymakers are waiting to assess the impact of U.S. trade policy before committing to any shifts. Minutes from the last meeting described a soft labor market, suggesting little room for maneuver unless conditions improve.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring toward $3,500. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17, while main indices closed higher. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Takes A Breather After the Surge
Meanwhile, gold continues to attract strong safe-haven flows. Prices surged above $3,570 this week, hitting a new record high, before briefly slipping back toward $3,511 in Asian trade. Buyers quickly returned, helping to stabilize the market. Technical charts now highlight the $3,600 level as the next major resistance, with $3,500 likely to serve as strong support.
USD?JPY Continues to Consolidate
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Climbs Above the $110K Level Again
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, however we saw a rebound off the 20 weekly SMA (gray) yesterday.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Heads to $4,500
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941. However we saw a retreat to $,000 lows over the weekend, but yesterday buyers returned.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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