LBMA Precious Metals Market Volumes and their significance, August 2025

Rhona O’Connell, StoneX Financial Ltd; 12^th September 2025

Any views expressed here are of the writer and do not reflect a house view from NASDAQ.

Gold hit a new record in late April in real as well as nominal terms.  August developments set the scene for renewed records in September

Daily August average compared with daily average for the previous twelve months.

Source: LBMA

Source: LBMA

Welcome to our monthly round-up of the LBMA OTC trading volumes in gold, silver, platinum and palladium, as recorded on a daily basis by the Association.  These are split into spot, swap/forward, options and LoanLeaseDeposit (LLD) and give a flavour of the markets’ activity and how they were influenced by external forces and news items.

All references to COMEX or NYMEX positioning refer to Managed Money, not commercial positions.

Changes in Open interest since tariff nerves took hold.

General introduction: 

Highlights:

Background summary: the first majority vote (as opposed to unanimous) from the Fed since 1993; US Nonfarm payrolls show signs of softening; President Trump keeps up his attacks on the Fed.  Prospects grow for a September rate cut, while global Purchasing Managers Indices (released in September) started to edge, generally, into positive territory. Geopolitics remained a key driver, both in terms of international tension and intranational stresses. International negotiations over Ukraine, Including Presidents Trump and Putin and latterly Presidents Trump and Zelensky, failed to reap any fruit.  The Fed’s annual meeting of central banks at Jackson Hole, as expected, saw no change in stance from Jay Powell, and a chorus of support from other central bankers.

Late in the month the US Geological Survey recommended that silver be put on the Critical Minerals List, and a Federal Appeals Court upheld a ruling from the Court of International Trade that the US‘ global tariffs were illegally imposed under an emergency law, but they remain in place as the case proceeds. The ruling may yet also be applied only to those nations that brought the action.

In price terms, silver was again the outperformer, gaining 7.2% in August; platinum remained in favour with a 3.8% gain. Rhodium went into reverse after a mid-month peak while gold remained in a narrow range building up steam before its big break higher in September; rhodium and gold gained a net 2.9% and 2.5% respectively while palladium unwound much of its June-July strength before picking up towards month end to close more or less unchanged. Year-to-date performances are in the chart below.  Gold had a fright with a Customs ruling that COMEX Good Delivery bars were worked and therefore subject to tariffs – although this was not implemented and the position is now clarified (no tariffs on any of the key gold tariff code specifications).

Precious Metals trading: palladium spot volumes take the spotlight

In the spot sector palladium took the laurels with a gain of 22% over the daily average of the previous twelve months as it partially unwound the sharp rally of June and July, which had seen it gain 42% to a high of $1,337.  Silver volumes were up 4% while gold and platinum were down fractionally, by 2% and 6% respectively.  Apart from LLD, palladium volumes were up all round.  Other notable changes were sharp falls in gold derivative instruments while options and LLD were also off in silver and platinum.  So on balance, with the exception of palladium, it was a typical quiet August.

Gold, silver, platinum and palladium, January to end-August 2025

To summarise; year-to end-August:

Rhodium                  +55.2%

Platinum                 +48.3%

Silver                       +34.3%

Gold                         +29.7%

Palladium                +20.7%

DXY index                -10.6%

The US yield 5Y-30Y curve; steepening in August on inflationary fears as investors pull out of long tenors (but started to reverse in September)

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

GOLD

Gold turnover, August, M ounces

Source: NASDAQ, LBMA

Almost another new record for gold, in real and nominal terms (wait for next month!)

To recap:

On 22^nd April, just before the London bullion market opened and towards the end of Asian trading hours, spot gold hit a high of $3,500.10.  The significance of this is two-fold.  From a fundamental standpoint it is important because this is a new record in real terms (i.e. accounting for the US CPI).  The high of 21^st January 1980 of $850 was posted after gold’s exponential rise on the back of the Hunt Brothers’ failed attempt to corner silver plus the Iran hostage crisis, the start of the Afghan / Soviet war plus the second oil crisis.  If this price were inflated via the US CPI into March 2025 dollars, that price translated to $3,486. 

Fast forward by four months and the January 1980 peak of $850 equates to $3,510.  August trading didn’t quite get there, but on 2^nd September it was surpassed as gold continued the sharp rally that started at the end of August (triggered by the President’s stated intention to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook).

Spot gold in nominal and real terms (deflator; US CPI)

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Gold, year-to-date

Gold spot volumes: down 2% against the previous 12 months in a range of just 6% in price with the high coming at month-end as gold finally broke free of its previous narrow range that had persisted since May. There was a substantial flurry in action in spot and the swap/forward section following the ruling from Customs Authorities over tariffs on COMEX Good Delivery bars at the end of the first week. What happened was this:

A Swiss refiner asked the United States Customs and Border Protection for clarification about the tariff position with respect to 100-ounce bars and kilobars.  The authority ruled that these bars should not be under the 7108.12.10 tariff (unwrought non-monetary bullion or doré) and classified into 7108.13.5500, which includes semi manufactured or powder forms and thus incurs tariffs.

At this point the futures prices on COMEX jumped, but, while the spread between spot and December expanded to just over $100 at one point, and thus hit the headlines with words like “record”, it wasn’t actually that dramatic.  The average premium between spot and the active contract had averaged 5.4% since the start of 2024 and 3.1% since the start of this year.  Immediately after the ruling the premium was 2.8% before sliding back to 1.7% over the weekend, during which time the President posted on social media that gold would not be tariffed.  Full clarity was forthcoming in September, with the addition to the exemption list of six tariff codes covering gold in unwrought and semi-manufactured form.

Immediately after the ruling the spot price rallied to $3,400 but slid back towards $3,350 on the Monday.  Volumes were high in spot for three days, while swaps/forward were lively for a little longer and it looks as if there was action on both sides as prices clustered close to $3,350 for a week.

The ruling towards month-end on the legality or otherwise of US global tariffs had little impact on volumes.  The only other interesting outlier in volume in a quiet month overall was a big one-day jump in option volume on the 22^nd as the market was starting to look higher.  It may well be that part of the speed of the ensuing rally reflected delta hedging from options writers.  There was a light increase in volume in LLD at month end as spot prices challenged $3,450.

COMEX inventories held steady over the month, narrowly varying between 1,199t and 1,211t, levelling off after the inrush ahead of tariffs (it was never really on the cards that gold would be subjected to tariffs, but risk managers understandably wanted to cover all bases). Inventory cover remains much higher than normal; in 2024 it varied between 30% and 40% of total open interest (bear in mind that it is rare for more than 5% of open positions to be settled physically); currently the cover is 87%, down from a peak of 98%.

GOLD on COMEX, tonnes

Exchange Traded Funds added 53.4t (WGC figures) in August to 3,692t, compared with annual global gold mine production of 3,661t.  North America and Europe added 37.1 and 21.3t respectively, while Asia lost 4.7t.  On a year-to-date basis the funds added 472.7t, of which North America took up 256.3t (of which 133t were in February and March, ahead of tariff day on 2^nd April), Europe 110.6t, Asia 100t and 5.5t for “others”.

SILVER

The big story in silver was the recommendation, on 26^th August, from the United States Geological Survey to add six fresh constituents to the Critical Minerals List.

Source: NASDAQ, helping to propel prices higher.

To qualify for inclusion in the Critical Minerals list (which was set up in  President Trump’s first term) a commodity must meet three criteria:

• It must be deemed essential to the US’ economy or its defence
• It must be vulnerable to supply chain disruption, including restrictions associated with foreign political risk, abrupt demand growth and other geopolitical risk elements
• It must be vital to manufacturing applications including agriculture, consumer electronics, currency, energy, healthcare and technology.

The list is updated every three years and the 2025 iteration has now been drafted; silver is on the proposal along with copper, lead, rhenium, potash and silicon.  The US Geological Survey’s report includes the following: “The concentration of mineral commodity production in a few countries and the high degree of reliance of the United States on imports from these countries increases the risks associated with foreign supply disruptions”.  The USGS applies two criteria; the potential effects of foreign trade disruptions on the US economy; and whether there is a single producer of the commodity in the US.  As far as silver is concerned the USGS included the following: “Silver’s probability-weighted net decrease in U.S. GDP is largely due to a scenario in which Mexico stops silver exports to the United States—a high impact ($435 million), low probability (4 percent) event.

So we have a situation in which industrial demand for silver is expanding and will keep the metal in a global pre-investment deficit; and the tensions between the US and Mexico and Canada are also pertinent. Based on the UN’s trade figures, during 2024 Mexico and Canada accounted for 49% and 18% of US silver imports respectively, comprising 2,823t and 1,070t from a total of 5,813t.

In volume terms the spot silver market showed little reaction, although activity did pick up on 27^th and 28^th . While prices might have been expected to rise, the immediate reaction was a small drop, which may have reflected some put option action on a $39 strike (that price level had been putting up some resistance) and then the spot price did start to take off, prompting some action in the forwards through to month-end.

All four segments were lively in the first half of the month before falling away more or less across the board until those final few days.  ETFs were busy during that period, which will have helped both the price and spot volumes higher so that, after opening August at $37, the push through $38 a week later came in good volume in spot and options.  The LLD sector was busy all the way through to the peak of the early move at $38.50, suggesting miners (probably in the base sector) locking in improved prices.

Duering the quiet period in mid-month prices drifted lower until support kicked in at $37 and the performance of the gold:silver ratio at that point and the following days suggest that it was in play; the improvement in spot volumes would thus not only demonstrate fresh interest as the price took off, but ratio trading may well have been a feature.  LLD activity was negligible, but forwards were active, which could well have been industrial buying.

Gold and silver plus the ratio

CFTC: from late July to mid-August there was a substantial drop in outright Managed Money longs, especially in the first week, which suggests substantial profit taking from the run up from $36 in late July.  Positions gradually increased in the second half, and the weekly numbers suggest fresh bargain hunting from $37 upwards, probably helped by momentum trading.  Outright shorts also increased.  Meanwhile with some market uncertainty over which silver tariff numbers are exempt from tariffs, inventories on COMEX continued to increase, rising from 15,759t to 16,086t over the month, equating at that point to 67% of open interest.  For context, global mine production is approximately 26,000tpa.

PLATINUM and PALLADIUM

Source: NASDAQ

Platinum and palladium trading patterns differed in August, with lively spot activity in platinum in the first three weeks before tailing off, while palladium spot activity was almost a mirror image of the platinum volumes.  Much the same can be said for swaps and forwards; and as the charts show, the prices of the two metals were also going in opposite directions.

We look at palladium first, as, as we have noted above, volumes in all sectors except LLD were substantially better than over the previous 12 months.  Spot was up 22%, forwards14% and options, 26% although the latter is off a low base.  The price dropped steadily over the month, from $1,199 to bottom out at $1,079 on the 27^th, before reversing once more and laying the foundation for fresh gains in early September.  There was light activity in the LLD over the course of this fall.  Spot traffic was very light over the same period- although it was nonetheless 13% higher than the daily average over the previous 12 months.  The was a burst of activity on the 18^th (the highest volume since 14^th July) in a day of narrow price ranges, which suggests that there was a tussle on either side of $1,120.  It did, however, herald a short period of sideways trading, again in reasonable volume centred on $1,100-$1,120 before sentiment changed, and fresh buying interest developed, presumably on the basis that prices had ceased falling and posted, at $1,080, the lowest price since early July. Forward activity was also lively in the final days, suggesting fresh industrial interest.

Platinum, palladium and the ratio, January 2020 to date,

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

The most interesting element in the palladium market in August at the end of July Sibanye-Stillwater and the United steelworkers in the States filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions with the Commerce Dept. and the US International Trade Commission, requesting duties on Russian palladium imports.

We have analysed the Russian imports of palladium to the US as recorded by the United Nations and worked out the average per ounce dollar price of those imports on a monthly basis. The differential from spot will not be strictly accurate as we can’t know the exact content of each shipment (ingot vs sponge), but it does give a reasonable gauge.

In bald numbers, monthly average imports in 2024, at 2.76tpm, were 39% higher than in 2023; the first five months of 2025, at 2.83t were up by a further 3%, or by 43% over 2023.  Implied prices are less convincing – although as noted above we can’t be certain of the precise mix each time.   

The figures show that the average per ounce price on a cif basis was at a discount to spot in nine months of the 27 months recorded here.  The weighted average differential is a premium of 3.0%.  The month in which the implied discount was at its deepest, at 8.5%, was January of this year with a 2.9t shipment.

The process is for the Commerce Dept to decide whether to investigate or note within 21 days, and the ITC to make a preliminary decision within 45 days.  Commerce may then issue preliminary countervailing duties within five months and preliminary anti-dumping within seven months.  No doubt they will have access to more detailed numbers than we, but on the basis of what we have here it would seem to suggest that a decision hangs in the balance.

Now we turn to platinum, which after a sharp drop at end-July worked its way higher over much of August amid persistent tightness in London.  After increased imports into China (which looks like bargain hunting across industry and not solely to jewellery as was originally opined, and about which we wrote in our review of May activity). While jewellers were almost certainly involved in the increased interest, this may well not have fully filtered down to the retail sector as jewellery purchasers tend to be loyal to the colour – yellow, or white.  The big price differential between platinum and gold, however, may well prompt some to switch allegiance.

In August activity in the Exchange Futures for Physical (EFP) remained lively, with market participants chasing physical metal, but holders reluctant to let it go.  Some liquidity did come into the market at end-July and early-August, with some chunky selling out of ETFs, which should have helped to alleviate the situation, but conditions remained tight, as evidenced in this chart, which shows the implied one-month lease rate.  This should normally be well below 3%, but which closed August at 163% (conditions are easing in September but not enough for comfort as yet).

Platinum implied one-month lease rate, year-to-date

Source: Bloomberg, Stonex

Another part of this equation is the level of platinum inventories on NYMEX, which started July at 9.8t, and hit 18.1t in mid-August and which then settled to stand at just over 16t in late August and into September.  This should not reflect any uncertainty over tariffs as unwrought and semi-manufactured platinum (and palladium and rhodium) are already on the exemption list.

Platinum; NYMEX inventories, tonnes

Source: Bloomberg, Stonex

Spot platinum, palladium and the spread, January 2020 to date

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Platinum, gold and the ratio

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

As far as trading patterns are concerned, these was clear spot buying into dips in price in the first week, when platinum was testing $1,300, and which helped to prompt a rally to a mid-month peak of $1,372.  Spot volumes were concentrated in this middle period, both on the run-up and the reversal and then faded away as the price worked its way up towards $1,380.  Derivatives were relatively quiet, although there was some lively action in options between 12^th and 15^th, when prices moved from $1,300 to $1,380, suggesting that both $1,300 and $1,400 strikes were in play – and this would have fed into spot on the back of some delta hedging.  LLD was light throughout the month and posted a 31% contraction against the daily average of the previous twelve months, but there was one particularly heavy day towards month-end which looks like industrial hedging.

CFTC

Platinum:  expansions in Managed Money positions on both sides for the most part, with longs adding a net 3.1t (5.5%) from 57.4t to 60.6t; shorts added 1.6t (4.7%) to 35.6t.

Palladium: a big negative swing, with Managed Money longs dropping by 6.3t (31%) from 20.1t to 13.8t; shorts expanded from 26.3t to 33.7t, taking the net short from 6.3t to 19.9t and potentially setting up a springboard for short-covering in the September rally.