Wall Street may be taming Bitcoin’s mood swings, turning BTC USD a little more like a major forex pair.
Bitcoin held near $115,700 on Sunday, Sept. 21, as a growing question took center stage: is TradFi steadying Bitcoin’s swings or changing their shape?
The debate picked up after fresh inflows to the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF and new remarks from Michael Saylor.
In a Saturday interview on the Coin Stories podcast, Saylor said calmer price action helps, not hurts: “You want the volatility to decrease so the mega institutions feel comfortable entering the space and size.”
He called it a normal “growing stage” as products and liquidity deepen.
On the derivatives side, CME said crypto options notional open interest hit a record $7.1Bn on Sept. 9, led by Bitcoin contracts, evidence that hedging tools for bigger players keep expanding.
TradFi probably won’t erase BTC USD volatility. It may smooth out fewer wild gaps, more mean-reverting drift, with the occasional shock that still bites.
What to watch next: whether ETF flows stay positive into quarter-end, how options price the path of Fed cuts, and whether regulation or geopolitics jolts implied vol off the floor.
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According to an analysis shared by trader Merlijn, Bitcoin’s long-term chart once again echoes its historical cycle patterns.
The chart shows that every major bull run since 2017 has included a mid-cycle “trap” a sharp correction that forces weaker hands out before the market resumes its rise.
In 2017, Bitcoin rose rapidly, and then it experienced a sharp decline that shook confidence, only to climb to historic levels a few months later.
The same pattern repeated in 2021, with prices freezing around $60,000 and then surging up.
(Source: X)
The present chart of Merlijn also indicates 2025 to be another instance of this pattern.
BTC USD rose to $100,000, and then retreated, creating yet another level of a flush and confusion phase. The price has been above $115,000 and has surged after returning to six figures.
The analysis shows the presence of downward resistance lines, which historically yielded following these cycle traps, thus resulting in parabolic progressions.
Green zones on the chart show prior acceleration phases, each ending in fresh all-time highs.
Bitcoin may be on the verge of another explosive rally if the pattern plays out again. Merlijn summed up the sequence simply: “Flush. Confuse. Then detonate higher.”
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