XRP ETF pump ‘disappointment,’ Bitcoin to see out 2025 at $173K: Trade Secrets

Welcome to Trade Secrets — Bitcoin and Ether price predictions from top analysts, along with options data, sentiment analysis and prediction markets to determine what they can tell us about the months and years ahead.

Bitcoin could finish 2025 above $173K, says history

There’s a decent chance that Bitcoin will end the year above $173,000, according to economist Timothy Peterson, citing BTC’s closing price on Sunday and historical data since 2017.

“September 21 marks the date — after which — Bitcoin finishes the year higher 70% of the time,” economist Peterson said on X. “The median gain is over 50%,” he added.

With Bitcoin’s price reaching an intraday high of $115,879 on Sunday, a 50% increase from there would place its price around $173,000. (Let’s ignore the price tanking on Monday for the sake of simplicity.)

Peterson explained that the pattern didn’t hold in three of eight years, including 2018 and 2022, which were already “well-established bear markets.”

“So the odds are probably closer to 90%,” he said. The price almost aligns with VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, who predicted Bitcoin would reach $180,000 by year-end. 

However, it falls short of the more optimistic forecasts from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s director of market research, Joe Burnett, who both projected $250,000.

What will happen after Bitcoin peaks continues to be widely debated within the industry. 

Magazine checked in with Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen regarding his prediction last week that Bitcoin could eventually drop up to 70% from this cycle’s all-time high. He stands by it. “Probably somewhere between a 66% to 74% drop in the bear market,” Cowen tells Magazine.

“But that is a 70% drop from whatever the all-time high is, not necessarily from the current high,” he reiterates.

ETH resistance breakthrough could open door to $5K: Exec

Ether has dropped nearly 8% over the past 30 days, but Tesseract CEO James Harris remains confident that the asset’s ability to stay above $4,000 could sustain momentum and potentially trigger another rally.

“The next resistance sits around $4,650-$4,700; a break there could quickly open the way toward $5,000,” tells Magazine. Ether trades around $4,207 at the time of publication.

However, Harris says that Ether may experience volatility in the short term. “Rate cuts are generally liquidity-positive and supportive for risk assets, but they can also signal weaker growth and weigh on valuations, particularly when prices are already elevated,” he says.

“Rate cuts are a double-edged sword — they boost liquidity, but they also signal softer growth. Add to that ETH’s sharp rally already from the sub $1,400 low, and profit-taking or pullbacks are natural risks.”

Harris has a $6,500 year-end target.

Meanwhile, Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee recently said that monetary liquidity sensitivity, global central banks’ easing and strong seasonality will drive the prices of Ether and Bitcoin.

“I think they could make a monster move in the next three months … huge,” Lee said.

Oct. 1 marks the start of Q4, which has historically delivered an average return of 23.85% for ETH, the second-worst-performing quarter of the year, according to CoinGlass. A 23.85% increase from Ether’s current price would bring it to roughly $5,370.

XRP traders expecting ‘immediate pump’ from ETF will be disappointed: Analyst

Traders should not expect an instant price surge in XRP as a reaction to the recent launch of the XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, according to a crypto analyst.

“Investors expecting an immediate XRP pump might end up disappointed,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal tells Magazine.

On Sept. 18, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR), which tracks XRP, launched and saw $37.7 million in volume, according to data from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and Cboe.

Hundal says the reported volumes into XRPR are “decent,” but traders should stay cautious. “Strong ETF flows didn’t stop sharp sell-offs in Bitcoin and Ethereum after their spot funds were approved,” he says.

However, Hundal is optimistic that REX and Osprey’s ETF launch…