Bitcoin (BTC) started the last week of October with a welcome rebound; can BTC price action cancel its dip from all-time highs?
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Bitcoin reached $114,500 for the weekly close as bulls staged a much-needed comeback, but many traders remained unconvinced.
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FOMC week began with stocks breathing a sigh of relief on reduced US-China tariff odds.
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Ongoing rate cuts may boost BTC price action by default, according to research, as AI predicts a return to $125,000.
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“Uptober” 2025 for Bitcoin may avoid gaining the notorious title of “worst October ever.”
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Short-term holders are back in profit, with room to grow before hitting classic retracement levels.
Bitcoin price hurdles linger as $115,000 returns
Bitcoin delivered for the bulls into the weekly close.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD sealing a rebound to $114,500 and reclaiming the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
At the weekend, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged that trend line as a key level to hold going forward.
Bitcoin is positioned for a positive Weekly Close above the 21-week EMA (green)
The recent breakout from the Ascending Triangle on the Daily timeframe has enabled this positive position on the Weekly timeframe$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/T7WJgk9Uyw pic.twitter.com/4u42pdGTX9
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 26, 2025
“Bitcoin is enjoying a strong rebound from the Macro Range Low,” he wrote in a post on X Sunday.
“Still just Macro consolidating inside this Monthly Range. In fact, Bitcoin has a chance to turn the September Monthly Highs into new support by the end of the month.”
Despite its impressive recovery, Bitcoin still struggled to convince many market participants that the bull market was back.
Among them, trader Roman reiterated weakness on higher time frames, low volume and bearish divergences on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI).
“Watching for this potential HTF Head & Shoulders bearish reversal setup. Validates on a break below 109k neckline,” he told X followers Monday alongside the one-week chart.
“I’ve been very adamant that HTF is exhausted and I’m not expecting higher. We shall see if this turns into a reversal or more consolidation for higher.”
Trading account HTL-NL placed BTC/USD in an expanding triangle, arguing that the overall situation had not changed after the uptick.
GM $BTC. Still not much to add. Soon we will see how strong this move is, or if we need another down. https://t.co/AOCt5Naqyb pic.twitter.com/nXancsSDzY
— HTL-NL 🇳🇱 (@htltimor) October 27, 2025
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed price slicing through liquidation levels both above and below as volatility returned.
Fed rate cut expected as stocks surge
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision takes center stage in macroeconomic news this week, and markets are betting on positive outcomes.
Amid an absence of inflation data due to the government shutdown, the Fed has less to go on than usual when it comes to rates.
That said, markets are confident that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will opt for a 0.25% cut; data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds at over 95%.
The sole data print that was released, last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), furthered the risk-asset bull case by showing inflation below expectations.
“We have a huge week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized.
Kobeissi noted that significant corporate earnings would add to the potential for market volatility in the coming days, with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and more due to report.
Another key topic on the radar is the US-China trade deal. The threat of tariffs sent crypto and stocks tumbling earlier this month, while over the weekend, Washington announced that a deal was near completion.
US President Donald Trump will meet with China’s Xi Jinping Thursday.
Stocks futures surged at the start of the week in response to the news, which removed a major hurdle to the continuation of the bull market.
“The S&P 500 has now added +$3 TRILLION since its October 10th low after PresidenTrump’s’s 100% China tariff was announced,” Kobeissi added.
“This is the most profitable market of all time.”
AI sees all-time highs possible this month
Continuing on the topic of interest rates, network economist Timothy Peterson had more “hopium” for Bitcoin bulls this week.
Bitcoin price cycles, he argued, are directly influenced by rate policy; cutting cycles can thus only be a boost to the bull case.
“Interest rates still too high, but QE coming,” he forecast, referring to a central-bank liquidity injection method known as quantitative…
cointelegraph.com