Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the November monthly close hanging by a thread below $90,000.
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Bitcoin traders hope for a modest recovery and even a return above the $100,000 mark after a brutal sell-off.
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BTC price action still has to contend with the aftermath of its latest “death cross” on daily timeframes.
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New data suggests that speculators are absorbing coins distributed by long-term holders.
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Thanksgiving week offers a brief yet data-rich period for risk assets.
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Crypto market sentiment is on the rebound as stocks sink deep into “extreme fear.”
Is Bitcoin emerging from the wreckage?
Following its latest local low of $80,500 last week, Bitcoin remains highly uncertain as the November monthly close approaches.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows the $88,000 mark currently acting as a price ceiling.
Traders are as split as ever, with long-term bearish predictions mixing with modest optimism.
“Bitcoin has reclaimed the 4H SMA-20 for the first time in 2 weeks,” trader BitBull noted in an X post Monday, referring to the 20-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart.
“On the shorter timeframe, $BTC is looking good now. A weekly close above $92,000 will make a bullish case for a rally towards $105K-$110K.”
Further hope came from Daan Crypto Trades, who argued that the weekly structure was still “intact” despite a major support collapse.
$BTC It is clear by now that Bitcoin has fully lost its Bull Market Support Band.
This had roughly been supporting price all cycle, with a few smaller deviations below.
But this recent move down has made it so there’s over a $20K+ gap to get back to the band.
At some point,… pic.twitter.com/dL15LFlMix
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) November 23, 2025
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, described Bitcoin’s latest three-day chart candle as “great.”
“These are usually created around bottoming formations of the markets, and as the current sentiment and indicators are more heavily overextended than FTX, I wouldn’t be surprised to see $BTC trading between $90-96K in the upcoming week,” he told X followers.
Van de Poppe referred to the crypto market’s reaction to the implosion of exchange FTX in late 2022, an event that led to the final phase of the last bear market.
BTC price faces death cross dilemma
The coming days will form a key test for Bitcoin market strength as the price emerges from a classic bear signal on daily timeframes.
The latest “death cross” on BTC/USD, formed when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the 200-day equivalent, hit on Nov. 15.
Its implications vary according to where Bitcoin is in its price cycle, but under current conditions, a major recovery is sorely needed to prevent a lengthy downtrend.
“Note that prior death crosses marked local lows in the market,” commentator Benjamin Cowen wrote in an X post on the topic last week.
“Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails. The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week.”
Cowen warned that if such a “bounce” failed to materialize, the 200-day SMA would be the target for a lower high, thus extinguishing hopes of a bull-market comeback.
“If no bounce occurs within 1 week, probably another dump before a larger rally back to the 200D SMA which would then mark a macro lower high,” he stressed.
The 200-day SMA currently sits at $110,130.
As Cointelegraph reported, price losing the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) two weeks ago caused a stir, having not seen a weekly candle close below it since March 2023.
Updating X followers, trader and analyst Rekt Capital showed that the 50-week EMA now aligns with a macro trendline, potentially reinforcing its status as resistance.
“It just so happens that the 50-week EMA (purple) tends to be approximately confluent with the Macro Downtrend (black),” he wrote alongside a chart on Sunday.
“Turning the 50-week EMA into resistance (or even overextending briefly beyond it but failing to turn it into new support) while also rejecting from the Macro Downtrend would be a sign of weakness and confirmation of a Lower High.”
Speculators step in
Bitcoin price volatility has sparked drastic change among investor cohorts, with multimonth lows dividing responses.
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant this week suggests that the BTC supply is moving from long-term (LTHs) to short-term holders (STHs).
“Long-Term Holders are heavily distributing and selling, while Short-Term Holders are buying and accumulating,” contributor CryptoOnChain summarized in a “Quicktake”…
cointelegraph.com