Bitcoin (BTC) counts down to Christmas at a crossroads with bulls and bears locked in a struggle for control.
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Bitcoin price targets become increasingly divergent as frustration builds over the lack of a breakout.
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Japan ruffles feathers with record bond yields as gold and silver smash all-time highs.
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Bitcoin is anything but price discovery as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator sees multiyear lows.
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The Coinbase Premium is back in the red, with US sellers staying strong.
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Sentiment bets give rise to calls for a contrarian market move higher.
Bitcoin end-of-year breakout bets diverge
After initially wobbling at the weekly close, Bitcoin saw some much-needed relief as bulls sought to revisit $90,000.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows BTC/USD circling multiday highs on Monday.
Traders have become increasingly polarized on the outlook, with some warning of a return to yearly lows while others anticipate a full bull-market rebound.
In his latest analysis on X, trader CrypNuevo considered both outcomes possible next.
Sellers, he argued, had disposed of the majority of their capital in the two months since Bitcoin saw its latest all-time highs of $126,000.
“I believe that there probably isn’t much left to sell right now. So the main bearish scenario is a sweep of the lows,” he wrote.
“Losing $80k would take price to the next support at $73k-$72k, but this information makes it more unlikely – unless if there is a new trigger for it to happen.”
Instead, CrypNuevo eyed the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near the $93,500 yearly open as a potential target.
“With this information, it wouldn’t surprise me to see an aggressive pump by EOY and the start of 2026,” the X thread continued.
“Clearing the local resistance at $94.5k (matches with the 1D50EMA) would be a clear sign. And then, it’d face a strong resistance at $100k.”
Expectations of the coming months also vary. Among the bearish takes is that of trader Killa, now seeing a comedown to $60,000 beginning in Q1 2026.
Don’t shoot the messenger, the final boss has entered the chat.
Ready for 1–2 months of chop?
The big leg down to 60K starts from Feb-March. pic.twitter.com/VgJaNEaN8H
— Killa (@KillaXBT) December 22, 2025
Reiterating his comparison to the end of Bitcoin’s previous bull market in 2021, trader Roman forecast a “very boring” festive period for crypto and stocks.
Gold, silver hit records as Japan casts a shadow
A relatively short week of US macro data releases gives the Fed pause for thought until January — but traders are seeing volatility everywhere.
Jobless claims and the delayed release of Q3 GDP numbers form the backbone of the macro data prints through Wednesday before markets close for Christmas.
As the week begins, however, it is precious metals and Japan’s economy that are stealing attention.
Japanese ten-year bond yields hit a record 2.1%, just days after the central bank hiked interest rates to 30-year highs and officials prepared a $140 billion stimulus package.
“Just as you think Japan’s situation can’t get worse, it gets even worse,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted on X.
BREAKING: Japan’s 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to a record 2.10%, now up +100 basis points in 2025.
Just as you think Japan’s situation can’t get worse, it gets even worse. pic.twitter.com/EkWvc9HnR4
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 22, 2025
Uncertainty over Japan has a history of sparking weakness in crypto markets, while the reaction to the contrarian rate hike was less pronounced.
A flight to safety could already be at hand — both gold and silver are hitting new all-time highs, while Bitcoin and altcoins languish far below theirs.
Gold reached $4,420 per ounce on Monday, while silver targeted the $70 mark for the first time, up nearly 150% in 2025.
“Asset owners keep on winning,” Kobeissi commented, calling stocks’ performance this year “historic.”
“US households now own more equities than real estate as a percentage of their net worth, the 3rd such occurrence over the last 65 years,” it noted.
When it comes to the good times continuing, market sentiment remains skeptical. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently puts the odds of the Fed cutting rates again in January at just 22%.
Bull or bear? Bitcoin echoes 2022
For onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is firmly in a bear market.
Among the various reasons, contributors argue, is the so-called Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which has been in negative territory since early September.
The Indicator measures the 30-day SMA of traders’ Profit & Loss (P&L) Index relative to its 365-day…
cointelegraph.com