Key takeaways
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Luke Gromen still believes governments will rely on inflation and weaker currencies to manage heavy debt.
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He is more cautious on Bitcoin in the short term and sees a possible move toward the $40,000 range in 2026.
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His main red flags are Bitcoin lagging gold, trend damage on key moving averages and “quantum risk” headlines weighing on sentiment.
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The takeaway is process-driven: Track the BTC-to-gold ratio, a simple trend filter and ETF flows instead of copying anyone’s trades.
Who is Luke Gromen?
Luke Gromen is a global macro analyst. He founded FFTT (Forest For The Trees) in early 2014 and publishes macro research for investors, including his Tree Rings product.
His core thesis is the “debasement trade.” In simple terms, when a country carries too much debt, it can make that burden easier to manage by allowing inflation to run and letting the currency lose purchasing power over time. This dynamic pushes some investors toward assets that are harder to create in unlimited supply, such as gold and, for many years, Bitcoin.
As of December 2025, Gromen has not abandoned the debasement view. What has changed, however, is his short-term outlook on Bitcoin (BTC).
On the RiskReversal podcast, he said BTC looks weak enough that a move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible. He also described Bitcoin as a position that can be scaled down as conditions deteriorate and said gold and some equities currently express the debasement theme better than BTC.
He points to a few practical warning signs: Bitcoin lagging gold, breaks below key moving averages and growing discussion around quantum risk.
Understanding “debasement” the way Gromen uses the term
When Gromen uses the term “debasement,” he means the following: If a government carries too much debt, it can make that burden feel lighter over time by allowing inflation to rise and the currency to lose value. The nominal debt stays the same, but it buys less in real terms.
That outcome is what matters. In a debasement environment, people often look for assets that are harder to “print,” such as gold and sometimes Bitcoin because they are seen as better at preserving purchasing power than cash.
In short, Gromen’s base view is that debasement will trickle down into Bitcoin.
Gromen’s key point is also about time. He does not treat this as a quick trade with a clear end date. Instead, he sees it as a long process in which pullbacks can occur without meaning the broader thesis is finished.
Did you know? “Debasement” started as a literal trick. In ancient and medieval times, rulers reduced the precious metal content of coins to stretch the money supply, either by shaving tiny amounts off the edges of coins or by melting them down and mixing in cheaper metals. The coin still carried the same face value, but it contained less silver or gold, meaning people were effectively paid in “lighter” money.
Why he’s fading Bitcoin now
Gromen’s 2025 message is straightforward: The debasement theme can still be valid, while Bitcoin can still be a poor setup in the short term. That is why he talks about trimming BTC risk even as he remains bullish on the broader macro direction.
On RiskReversal, he argues that gold and some equities are expressing the debasement trade more clearly right now than Bitcoin. He also outlines a scenario in which BTC could slide toward the $40,000 range in 2026.
The first signal he highlights is Bitcoin priced in gold. He views it as a warning sign when BTC fails to make new highs relative to gold. The ratio adds important context. The number of ounces of gold needed to buy one BTC fell to about 20 ounces, down from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024. In his framing, this suggests that the “hard asset hedge” spotlight has shifted away from Bitcoin for now.
The second signal is technicals. He points to breaks below key moving averages as a reason the risk-reward looks less attractive. Not “Bitcoin is dead,” but rather that the chart is not rewarding heavy exposure.
The third is macro pressure and narratives, especially quantum risk. He points to rising chatter around quantum computing as another headwind. The topic keeps resurfacing in part because there have been proposals and discussions about moving Bitcoin away from older signature schemes as part of a longer post-quantum migration path.
He is not alone in being cautious, but he is also not speaking for everyone. Some Bitcoin-focused analysts push back strongly. Onchain analyst Checkmate and researcher Troy Cross have argued that this looks like selling into weakness and that the quantum angle is being treated more like an internet narrative than an immediate threat.
How to track Gromen’s signals
If you want to follow the idea without copying anyone’s trades, keep it mechanical. One approach is to check the same three signals each week: BTC versus gold, trend health and flows.
1) Start with BTC priced in gold as your “store of value” test
Gromen’s warning is…
cointelegraph.com