Quick overview
- As of May 1, 2026, Nvidia shares are trading just below $198, reflecting a significant market cap drop ahead of its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings.
- Nvidia reported record revenue of $215.9 billion in 2026, driven primarily by a 90% contribution from Data Center sales.
- CEO Jensen Huang highlighted booming demand for Blackwell products, with forecasts of $1 trillion in sales through 2027.
- Technical analysis indicates Nvidia is testing key support levels, with a bearish trend following a rejection at the $218 resistance level.
As of May 1st, 2026, Nvidia shares changed hands for just shy of $198 each ( thats a market cap of around $4.8-5 trillion) – a pretty big drop – ahead of its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings due out around May 20.
Key Drivers
- Record Fiscal 2026: Revenue reached $215.9 billion in 2026 , thats up a whopping 65% on the year. Q4 alone was a bumper $68.1 billion – up 73% on the year – and the real driver behind that was Data Center sales, which came in at $62.3 billion. This now accounts for an enormous 90% of the company’s total sales.
- Blackwell is Flying: CEO Jensen Huang has essentially said Blackwell demand is booming, with stock sold out for months ahead. At the GTC 2026 conference he even upscaled the forecast to $1 trillion in combined Blackwell and Vera Rubin sales through 2027.
- AI Demand is Still going Strong: The hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle) and the sovereign AI players are all still aggressively pouring money into capex. Nvidia’s CUDA software has a strong moat, they have a full-stack offering (NVLink,
- InfiniBand/Ethernet, DGX systems), and high pricing power – all of which support those pretty healthy mid-70% gross margins.
- Q1 Guidance in Context: The outlook had been for around $78 billion in revenue (give or take 2%), excluding China Data Center compute – due to export restrictions. The consensus forecast is pretty close to that – implying continued year on year growth of over 70%.
Nvidia (NVDA) Technical Analysis
Nvidia has just broken below the psychological $200 level after its recent rejection of the upper boundary of a rising channel at around $218. On the 4H chart you can see a series of lower highs. The recent reversal is marked by a pretty clear bearish engulfing candle – and the stock is now testing the channel midline, heading towards the lower boundary near $192-$190.
The 50 day EMA has now dropped to $201.9 (and is acting as resistance), while the 200 day EMA is even lower near $190.7, which is acting as support. RSI is at 38, which is weakening but hasn’t yet reached oversold conditions.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $200 to $203
- Support: $192.7 to $190 to $185
Trade Idea: Sell below $198 , targeting $192 to $185. Set your stop-loss above $203. Nvidia’s secular AI tailwinds and execution are still looking good, but its valuation leaves little room for disappointment around the May 20 earnings print.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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