Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week under pressure as support levels fade and macro gloom intensifies.
Key points:
- Bitcoin falls below a key 21-week trend line after the weekly close, but hopes of a “bear trap” rebound remain.
- US-Iran war rhetoric continues to push oil higher, pressuring crypto markets.
- Those tensions could still be countered by strong PMI and Nvidia earnings data in the coming days.
- Bitcoin whales are acting as if the bottom is already in, per new analysis.
- Despite this, a surge in exchange inflows from a key investor cohort raises alarm over “capitulation.”
BTC price analysis sees relief bounce after sub-$77,000 dip
Bitcoin felt the pressure as the new weekly candle began, dropping to $76,500 — its lowest levels since May 1, per data from TradingView.
After several support retests, BTC/USD began to fall through recently recovered ground, which included the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $78,660.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 21-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With it, price fell back below the bull market support band.
“Another weekly close at it for now, but to confirm a proper breakout you’d need to see a bounce now,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in X analysis before the trip toward month-to-date lows.
“If this ends up falling back below that $75K-$76K area and closes there on the weekly, then this was just a big deviation/dead cat bounce in my eyes.”
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
The downside cost BTC long positions, with cross-crypto long liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing passing $670 million.
Data from CoinGlass also shows potential liquidations building either side of spot price, providing fuel for liquidity grabs both up and down.
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
Commenting, trading account Cryptic Trades saw a bounce coming next due to the magnitude of liquidated longs.
“$BTC has just tapped into the prior Breakout Zone at $75K-$76K,” it told X followers.
“Expecting a bounce here, as the longs I covered in my prior alert also got flushed.”
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cryptic Trades/X
At the weekend, Cryptic Trades suggested that any downmove would have the markings of a classic “bear trap,” given rising open interest and negative funding rates.
“This shows us that bears are DOUBLING DOWN right now and betting on a breakdown,” it wrote.
“It also shows that even though the market structure remains intact, bears are shorting as if a breakdown already happened. That’s generally how bear-traps are formed.”
US bond markets “collapsing in real time”
While light on US macro data, the coming week is already shaping up to be a tricky one for crypto traders.
Tensions over the US-Iran war are returning, with the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz oil route fully opening still absent.
In a post on Truth Social over the weekend, US President Donald Trump wrote that the “clock is ticking” for Iran, without giving specific details.
Source: Truth Social
Additional reports claimed that Trump was convening a security meeting to discuss “military options in Iran,” per trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
Oil futures reacted sharply at the weekly open, with WTI crude reaching near two-week highs of $104.45.
“The impact on energy prices from the war in the Middle East is pushing inflation to its highest level in years,” analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Like others, Mosaic tied high oil prices to surging US inflation prints.
“While a spike in energy prices are helping drive inflation higher, the most recent reports continue a trend of growing price pressures,” it continued.
US bond markets, meanwhile, continue to sum up the about-turn in market sentiment, as “unsustainable” yield growth wipes out the odds of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
“On Friday, the 30-year Treasury yield jumped above the 5% level which is the high tested several times over the past couple years. A sustained breakout could have serious implications at a time when federal debt and deficit spending is surging,” Mosaic warned.
US 30-year treasury yield chart. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
Kobeissi described the US bond market as “collapsing in real time.”
“And, in a sudden turn of events, the odds of rate cuts have collapsed to 2% this year and US inflation is nearing 4%+,” it noted on X.
PMI, Nvidia earnings give crypto bulls hope
Amid the chaos, a silver lining could come in the form of manufacturing data.
The latest S&P Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, due out on Thursday, should ideally continue a breakout that began earlier in 2026.
Bitcoin and risk assets reacted positively to the development, which ended several years of PMI contraction.
Global PMI versus GDP data (screenshot). Source: S&P Global
Major tech earnings are also lining up…
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