Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June with damage control — and new macro lows are still expected this year.
- Traders see a relief bounce coming next for BTC price action, but the bottom, they agree, is not in.
- US inflation data will test markets’ resolve as the US-Iran war drags on.
- Peace-deal pledges by US President Donald Trump do little to stabilize the risk-asset picture.
- Multiple onchain indicators give analysts hope that the worst of the sell-off is over.
- Crypto sentiment dives to some of its lowest levels on record.
Bitcoin bear-market bottom is months away
Bitcoin saw modest relief around its latest weekly close, data from TradingView shows, but among traders, the lack of major good news is conspicuous.
“Previous weekly candle closed very bearish, and left an imbalance at 72.5K. As long as we hold the 59.1K previous weekly low, my final long target for this week is that 72.5K imbalance,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in one of his latest analysis posts on X.
BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X
Trader Mark Cullen warned that even in the event of a relief bounce, the bear-market low was still to come.
“Now $BTC has swept the 60K level, which happened a bit quicker than i had originally anticipated,” he told X followers.
“I expect we have a bit more sideways and up for the rest of June. I am not expecting the ultimate market low until middle to late Q3.”
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X
With slightly different timing, crypto commentator ColinTalksCrypto had similar expectations. BTC/USD, he noted, had closed below a key long-term trend line, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).
“Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4,” he argued.
ColinTalksCrypto said that Q4 “has high odds of being the cycle bottom.”
BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
CPI and PPI inflation to challenge multiyear highs
May US inflation data will add fuel to market nerves this week, with markets already betting on interest-rate hikes.
The May prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are slated to reflect the ongoing influence of the US-Iran war on the economy.
Both indexes hit multiyear highs when last updated for April, and the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of Federal Reserve policy changing quickly.
“The BASE case shows two rate HIKES by early 2027. There is even a rising 17% chance of 3 rate HIKES by April 2027,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in analysis late last week.
“Just months ago, markets saw up to 4 rate CUTS in 2026 alone.”
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
As Cointelegraph reported, US stock markets have broadly shaken off inflation risks, hitting repeated all-time highs as tech stocks drive optimism.
That picture is also looking less stable this week as rate-hike nerves filter through. South Korea’s stock market was halted for volatility on Monday after falling 8% at the open.
Korea Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Something just shifted in the world’s hottest stock market,” Nic Puckrin, founder of crypto platform Coin Bureau, commented on Sunday.
“Koreans stocks are up 90% this year. But the options chart on the Korea ETF has flipped from bullish bets to downside protection. The is a sign that those still in the trade are no longer confident.”
Market data for iShares South Korea ETF. Source: Nic Puckrin/X
Iran war peace promises fail to tame markets
Coming in tandem with macro pressure are developments in the US-Iran war, which remains an unpredictable market volatility catalyst.
Last week, US President Donald Trump said that the conflict would “work out well,” but the assurances failed to stop new multiyear lows for BTC/USD.
Exchanges of fire in the interim meant that the sense of uncertainty continued.
Quoted by the Financial Times and others on Sunday, Trump again sought to put a positive slant on events, saying that the latest strikes would not impact ongoing peace negotiations.
“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” he said in a telephone interview.
Bitcoin appeared buoyed by Trump’s words, which included an assertion that Israel would have “no choice” but to accept an Iran deal.
Oil prices gained into the new week, with WTI crude returning above $95 per barrel.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Commenting, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that the new week would start with a bump.
“I would expect to see prices drop slightly lower going into the Monday open, as the stock markets were falling off a cliff on Friday evening,” he told X followers.
“After US open, or on Tuesday, this rotates back up and we’ll start to see a glimpse of upwards momentum on Bitcoin.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de…
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