When President Trump arrives in France on Monday just hours after taking in a series of cage fights outside the White House, U.S. allies will watch to see whether he approaches the annual Group of 7 summit there as an opportunity for collaboration or yet another brawl.
Mr. Trump’s positions on trade, the war in Ukraine and NATO have put him at odds with European leaders for years. But it is the three-month-long U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that has pushed those allies to see Mr. Trump more as a combative opponent than a reliable partner.
He has lashed out in recent weeks at leaders in Europe for not supporting the war, which has killed thousands and roiled the global economy. President Trump announced on Sunday that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and continue negotiations to end the war. But the conflict and the rise in energy prices it has caused were still likely to dominate the meetings.
“What Trump is going to show up? Will he be in a fighting mood?” asked Heidi E. Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations. “He might want to show up to berate allies for not stepping up to fight in the Gulf.”
Mr. Trump is expected to meet with President Emmanuel Macron of France on Monday evening before holding group sessions with other world leaders on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mr. Trump will look to secure their help in removing Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz once it reopens, according to senior administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the summit. He will also meet with leaders of Qatar, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
The administration is also hoping to reach new investment deals with the nations and discuss issues like critical minerals, artificial intelligence and illegal immigration, according to the administration officials. The last issue, migration, could set the stage for Mr. Trump to clash with European leaders who have questioned his administration.
After Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany said in April that the United States was being “humiliated” by Iranian negotiators, Mr. Trump accused him of “interfering” with the conflict, writing on social media that he should spend more time “fixing his broken Country, especially Immigration.” Just days later, the Pentagon announced that it would pull 5,000 troops from Germany.
And just over a week ago, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth used a D-Day speech in France to criticize Europe over its migration policies, saying that “dangerous ideologies” were storming the continent’s shores, in what he compared to an “invasion.”
Mr. Trump has long been the odd man out at the convening of the leaders of the Group of 7, who represent seven of the world’s largest industrialized economies — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.
In 2018, during his first term, Mr. Trump stormed out of the summit, which was held in Canada, after he imposed tariffs on the host country, antagonized U.S. allies and called for Western countries to embrace Russia.
Last year, in the first Group of 7 meeting of his second term, he offered up a similar spectacle. He called for the alliance to readmit Russia, which was ejected in 2014 after it attacked Ukraine and “annexed” Crimea, a prelude to its full-scale invasion in 2022. He proclaimed that if Russia had been allowed to return, the war in Ukraine would have been averted. He then left the summit early to join Israel in carrying out attacks in Iran.
In the year since, Mr. Trump has grown more isolated.
In his visit to Switzerland in January to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr. Trump threatened a new round of tariffs against European nations unless they acquiesced to his demands that the United States acquire Greenland. That prompted some leaders to warn that the era of relying on the United States as a credible ally appeared to be over, replaced by what Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada called “a rupture.”
“That has led to a real breach of trust and a sense that the United States is not really a reliable partner,” said Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Experts say the dynamics of this year’s meetings will be notably different.
Last year, leaders showed deference to Mr. Trump with hopes that the United States would continue to support Ukraine and might persuade Russia to stop its aggression. European leaders were also angling to make trade deals as the president repeatedly threatened and imposed tariffs to extract concessions from trading partners. They also feared a broader war in the Middle East after Israel carried out a surprise attack on Iran, and a pervasive concern about the soaring costs of fuel caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This year, they have distanced themselves from, or been outright critical of, the war with Iran, which the United States started alongside Israel in February. They are preaching self-sufficiency and asserting themselves as the leaders of the campaign to end the war in Ukraine. And the concerns about soaring energy costs are dominated by the war with Iran, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and which Mr. Trump has struggled to bring to an end.
But Mr. Trump has signaled that he will retaliate against his European critics. In addition to the troop withdrawals from Germany, he has also issued veiled threats to European allies in NATO, questioning whether the United States should have to defend them in the event of an attack given that they have not aided in the Iran war.
“What we are increasingly seeing is Europeans beginning to think about a life with less America,” Mr. Bergmann said. “We’re seeing this when it relates to Ukraine, in particular, where the European Union has stepped up and has become the major financial backer of Ukraine.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine will be attending the summit, and he and Mr. Trump will both attend a working session on Tuesday. But a senior administration official said that the two leaders were not scheduled to meet one-on-one. On Sunday, before traveling to the summit, Mr. Trump held separate calls with both Mr. Zelensky and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, according to a White House official speaking on the condition of anonymity to confirm the conversations.
Mr. Trump has still shown that he can be swayed by the Europeans, particularly when met with flattery or pageantry. King Charles III was able to calm tensions between the United States and Britain — at least briefly — on his state visit to Washington in May. Mr. Macron pleased Mr. Trump during his visit to Paris in 2017 when he hosted him for dinner at the Eiffel Tower.
Mr. Macron will try to impress Mr. Trump once again. He has already pushed back the start of the summit to accommodate Mr. Trump, so he could attend the Ultimate Fighting Championship event at the White House on his 80th birthday. He is also expected to dine with Mr. Trump on Wednesday night at the Palace of Versailles, the lavish estate of French royalty.
It will be Mr. Macron’s way of celebrating the 250th anniversary of America’s independence, just days after Mr. Trump marked the milestone with cage fights at the White House.
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