Gold prices rose in European trading on Friday, extending gains for a third consecutive session and reaching their highest level in nearly two weeks. The metal is on track for its strongest weekly gain since March, supported by a weaker US dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Softer-than-expected US employment data, along with less hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, reduced expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates again this year.
The Price
• Gold prices rose 1.75% to $4,195.47 per ounce, the highest level since June 23, from an opening level of $4,123.15. The session low was recorded at $4,121.29.
• At Thursday’s settlement, gold gained 2.3%, marking a second consecutive daily advance as prices continued to recover from a seven-month low of $3,942.55 per ounce.
Weekly Performance
For the week, which officially ends at today’s settlement, gold prices are up more than 2.5% and are on track to post their first weekly gain in five weeks, as well as their strongest weekly advance since March.
US Dollar
The US Dollar Index fell 0.25% on Friday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and trading near a two-week low of 100.56 points, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.
A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive for buyers holding other currencies.
June’s modest US employment report pushed markets to reduce expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes, while investors continue to await stronger evidence on the policy outlook.
US Jobs
US job growth slowed sharply in June, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 57,000 jobs, well below expectations for a gain of 110,000.
The labor force participation rate also fell to 61.5%, its lowest level in more than five years.
Kevin Warsh
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation expectations and price risks had eased in recent weeks, while stressing that he remains firmly committed to the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
US Interest Rates
• Following the jobs data and Warsh’s remarks, CME FedWatch pricing showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at its July meeting rose from 66% to 82%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike fell from 34% to 18%.
• Market expectations for unchanged rates at the December meeting also rose from 15% to 22%, while the probability of a quarter-point hike declined from 85% to 78%.
Gold Outlook
Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said the market is currently repricing the likelihood of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes through the rest of this year and into the first quarter of next year, mainly because of the relatively weak US labor market data released on Thursday.
Wong added that rate-hike expectations have not disappeared entirely from market pricing. If the possibility of higher rates remains in place until year-end, gold could face another wave of weakness, with prices potentially falling toward $3,500 per ounce.
SPDR Gold Trust
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by 3.99 metric tons on Thursday, bringing total holdings down to 1,001.37 metric tons, the lowest level since September 24, 2025.
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