Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with a bump as traders brace for more macro volatility.
Key points:
- Bitcoin gets knocked back toward $62,000, but a trader is already eyeing the end of the bear market by September.
- A new BTC price “death cross” forms the latest signal that the bear market may have just months left to run.
- The US-Iran war is back as the Strait of Hormuz closes to oil traffic, prompting risk-asset headwinds.
- US CPI and PPI data is due out, while Fed chair Kevin Warsh will outline future policy to lawmakers.
- A major distribution event involving midsize Bitcoin hodlers shows fractured sentiment across investor cohorts.
Bitcoin bear-market bottom due “around September or October”
Bitcoin continues to circle its lowest levels since Q3 2024, but one theory is already calling for the return of the bull market as soon as September.
In an X post on Monday, trader Ryker called the entire four-year cycle of bull and bear markets into question.
“I disagree with this chart,” they wrote alongside a comparison of previous market phases for BTC/USD stretching back to 2013.
Ryker argued that since consensus sees the 2026 bear-market bottom as still to come, market makers will frontrun sentiment and initiate a long-term rebound in advance, leaving as many traders off-side as possible.
“Most people believe that the next Bitcoin bull cycle will begin in 2027. However, market makers know exactly what the crowd is thinking,” they continued.
“I predict that Bitcoin will start surging around September or October of this year, and the crowd will miss the buy opportunity. You shouldn’t trust this chart.”
BTC/USD one-week chart comparison. Source: Ryker/X
The idea comes as multiple BTC price indicators begin to flash reversal signals for the first time since the end of the last bear market in late 2022.
As Cointelegraph reported, however, history suggests that the bear market is simply too young to reverse before the end of the year, with current progress at around 70%.
Trader confirms classic BTC price bear-market “death cross”
Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure immediately after the weekly close, dropping to local lows near $62,500, per data from TradingView.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
This reinforced the area around $64,000 as short-term resistance, with multiple attempts to break higher all ending in failure last week.
“Crypto choppy, so are stocks,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest analysis on X.
“Bitcoin remains rangebound between this ~$61K-$65K region and is right in the middle here.”
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Fellow trader Lennaert Snyder saw little chance of even a rematch with range highs, putting $63,600 as the next entry point for a BTC short position.
“Orderflow also confirms spot and perps are selling and funding rates are still quite high, so some downward pressure would be healthy,” he commented on Monday about exchange order-book data.
Snyder described BTC/USD dropping to fresh lows under $57,800 as the “most healthy scenario.”
BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X
A more optimistic take came from trader Jelle, who maintained hope of a near-term rebound to $70,000.
On longer time frames, Jelle noted the recent “death cross” on the weekly chart potentially forming a reliable foundation for sustained upside.
This involves the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages (SMAs), and with the last death cross coming in September 2022, just months before the last bear-market bottom.
“In the past, by the time this signal flashed, Bitcoin’s bear market was nearly ending. More and more signs confirming my belief that accumulation season is back,” Jelle told X followers.
BTC/USD one-week chart with 50, 100SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Hormuz closure rocks oil, stocks in crypto headwind
The US-Iran war is already back as a major macro volatility driver this week.
Over the weekend, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz — a key global oil route — closed until further notice.
This followed a series of escalatory events that broke the fragile ceasefire agreement previously in effect, and markets reacted in kind.
US WTI crude oil returned to $75 per barrel on Monday, up nearly 12% versus its July lows.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Reacting, Nic Puckrin, CEO and cofounder of crypto education platform Coin Bureau, flagged other signs of stress as a result of the resurgent conflict.
“US 2yr T-bill yields just shot above 2.35% – the highest level in 16 months!” he wrote in a post on X.
“The Iran situation is pushing up oil prices & inflation expectations. It’s saying: Interest rates are going to be higher for longer.”
US two-year Treasury yield chart. Source: Nic Puckrin/X
Puckrin referred to two-year US Treasury note yields and their potential impact on financial policy, with higher interest rates traditionally being a headwind for crypto and risk assets.
While US stock…
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