XRP trades near $1.09 as Ripple Mint launch and $1.5B ETF inflows clash with bearish charts ahead of the Fed. Key level $1.085, target $1.161.
XRP Price Forecast Today: XRP holds $1.09 Trendline as Ripple Mint Launch meets Fed Decision
On Monday, July 27, XRP is currently hovering in the $1.09 to $1.11 range. It has managed to hold its ground just above the ascending trendline that has provided support since the end of June. However, it remains trapped beneath all significant moving averages.
Most of the rally we witnessed mid-July has been wiped out, with the token slipping from $1.16 earlier in the week as the CLARITY Act committee rally waned and sentiment across the broader crypto market faded. This disconnect between XRP’s impressive fundamentals and its weak price action is the primary story leading into the Federal Reserve decision this week.
The Fundamental-Price Disconnect
Ripple’s momentum is likely as strong as it has been at any point previously, even though it doesn’t appear to be reflected in the price today. Earlier this week, on July 23, Ripple introduced Ripple Mint, an institutional platform that allows exchanges, banks, and payment service providers to mint, redeem, bridge, and manage Ripple USD (RLUSD).
All of this can be accessed either through a singular portal or via an application programming interface. The solution is intended for business customers who require automated stablecoin usage to handle payments, treasury and trading operations. The launch is the latest step in the Ripple effort to build out enterprise payment infrastructure on the XRP Ledger.
Last week, Ripple announced its investment in Notabene, a provider of compliance infrastructure for RLUSD integration into cross-border payment networks. Demand for the token is still present. ETFs have accumulated more than $1.5 billion so far, with holdings only going up. The XRP Ledger saw more than 1.4 million AI-agent-initiated transactions on July 22, and Binance rolled out RLUSD incentives, with yields as high as 22.25%.
The only problem with all this good news is it doesn’t show in XRP’s price. It currently trades below the EMA20 at $1.11, the EMA50 at $1.14, and the EMA200 at $1.44, which is the bearish alignment you can’t get around. The fact that Bitcoin dominance now sits at 56.47%, while the Fear & Greed Index is at 30 (Fear), confirms capital is flowing into BTC rather than rotating into the alts. So long as capital favors Bitcoin, XRP will be unable to reflect even its impressive fundamentals.
The Fed Decision Is the Macro Catalyst
The Federal Reserve is holding its July 28 to 29 meeting. Risk has never been higher for alts. The odds of a September rate hike surged to 80% last week in the wake of the spike in inflation from rising oil prices. Should the Fed statement come out more hawkish than anticipated, it will make USD stronger and push risk assets lower, crypto among them. XRP in particular, already being in a fragile price condition, will struggle even more.
A less aggressive statement from Warsh should help the oversold 1H and 15M indicators on XRP bounce up as relief. As long as the broader crypto market doesn’t improve and Bitcoin dominance doesn’t start declining, the news from Ripple won’t impact XRP’s price.
XRP Technical Analysis: The $1.085 Trendline Is Decisive
The current situation shows XRP reacting at both its ascending trendline and its horizontal support near $1.085. Today, in the 1-hour timeframe, it was bounced lower at the 50-period EMA ($1.103) and 200-period EMA ($1.105). As such, RSI on the time frame has dropped into around 41 in the direction of bearish pressure. The level to watch here is the price level where XRP’s rising trendline lies, around $1.085.
If this level holds, the rebound could allow XRP to reach higher and move closer towards its EMAs before moving towards $1.116. From there, a breakout could carry price to $1.135 and then $1.161. On the other hand, if the level is broken, the bullish structure of XRP will no longer be supported and could send prices lower towards $1.060, $1.032 and then $1.007.
Resistance: $1.105, $1.116, $1.135, $1.161. Support: $1.085, $1.060, $1.032, $1.007.
Trade Setup, Bullish: Buy on a rebound above $1.105. Targets: $1.116, $1.135. Extended targets: $1.161. Stop-loss: below $1.085.
Bearish Scenario: $1.085 is broken and prices decline towards $1.060, then $1.032.
FAQ: XRP, Fundamental Disconnect, Fed Impact, and the $1.085 Level
Why is XRP falling despite strong Ripple news like the Mint launch?
Ripple is experiencing unprecedented growth, in large part thanks to Ripple Mint, investment in Notabene, the adoption of RLUSD and ETFs that have accumulated almost $1.5 billion in assets so far. While these milestones strengthen the asset’s longer-term prospects, they don’t necessarily move the price in the short term. At the same time as Bitcoin dominance is increasing and the global crypto market is in the Fear zone, funds are not rotating into alts but instead accumulating in BTC. XRP is simply too far behind its fundamentals until market risk preference returns.
How does the Fed decision affect XRP this week?
The FOMC meeting on July 28 to 29 will be the dominant macro event this week. After the hike in oil prices pushed inflation higher, the odds of a rate hike in September rose to 80%. Consequently, a more hawkish stance on interest rates from the Fed will result in USD strengthening. Riskier assets, such as crypto and XRP in particular, will suffer. On the contrary, a dovish Fed statement may result in lower inflation and cause short-term XRP indicators in the oversold zone to rebound. With the crypto market reacting more to macro than token-specific news and the Fed dominating this week’s news flow, even the introduction of Ripple Mint won’t make that much of a difference.
Is $1.085 a buy zone for XRP?
$1.085 is the confluence between XRP’s ascending trendline and horizontal support, which is the single most important level on the chart. A rebound from there with the help of buying pressure that sees the price break above $1.105 will open the way to $1.116, then to $1.135, and potentially higher.
Should this level be broken, the bullish structure of XRP will no longer hold and could push prices lower to $1.060 and possibly lower. Given the EMAs are in their bearish formation and the fact that BTC dominance continues to increase, waiting for confirmation of XRP’s recovery is important rather than trying to jump in ahead of that trend reversal.
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