Forex Today 11/08: US and Iran Continue to Exchange Demands

The US and Iran Continue to Trade Barbs and Demands; RBA Not Expected to Hike but Statement Will be Parsed; Cleveland Fed Head States More than One Rate Hike Probable; US CPI Expected to Rise in July; Silver Jumps Over the 200 Day EMA Early on Tuesday

1. The United States and Iran traded barbs via the media on Monday, as both are now demanding compensation for damages and loss of life during the war. While this is unlikely to be seen as realistic, it has lifted the Crude Oil market a bit during the session, as traders are coming back to grips with the idea that the situation isn’t ending easily.

2. The RBA will have an interest rate decision on Tuesday, which could come into the fold for the next AUD/USD move, but there is no actual rate hike expected. The pair has recently seen a move to the upside, mainly driven by the idea of commodities picking up and the lessening number of interest rate hikes by the Fed that are expected. The policy statement will be the main focus of the trading public.

3. Cleveland Federal Reserve president Beth Hammack said on Monday that she anticipates more than one interest rate hike will be required to rein in inflation. She even suggested that it could take several interest rate hikes.

4. US CPI in July is expected to bounce back, according to economists in the USA. The June numbers surprised, but the July CPI numbers will be closely watched, as there is a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, meaning that all inflationary information will be closely watched over the next 6 weeks. This will be a big mover of the US dollar in general. Another market that will be watching this very closely is the Gold market. On an annual basis, economists are expecting a 3.4% increase.

5. Silver is jumping over the 200 Day EMA early on Tuesday in Asian trading. The market has been rising over the last several sessions, as the metals have been recovering for a few sessions, and now clearing the 200 Day EMA is a big technical signal. Traders are starting to buy into the narrative that inflation could lift some commodities.

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