Bitcoin (BTC) starts the final week of August near its highest levels since mid-May as its bear-market recovery reaches a critical stage.
Key points:
- Bitcoin sees a weekly candle close above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since November 2025.
- Amid its best August gains in almost a decade, BTC/USD returns investor cohorts to net profit, while new money enters at $73,000.
- Fed chair Kevin Warsh is in the spotlight ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
- US PCE data will be released on Wednesday as markets continue to respond to last week’s US Treasury debt buyback.
- Investor capital returns to exchange-traded products as Bitcoin ETF netflows hit $1.9 billion last week.
Bitcoin scrapes weekly close above key resistance
Bitcoin reached $79,550 last week, its highest levels since early May as a five-day rally brought gains of up to 27%. BTC/USD closed last week at $77,727 on Bitstamp, per data from TradingView. This signified a reclaim of its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a key resistance trendline that currently sits at $77,752.
The 50-week EMA is commonly brought into focus by traders during Bitcoin bear markets. The last candle close above this crucial line of resistance was in early November 2025. In prior bear markets, BTC has retested the 50-week EMA before capitulating into its ultimate macro lows. This has meant some traders remain unconvinced by last week’s strong price action.
BTC/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Prior to the close, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that not only the 50-week EMA but the entire area around $80,000 figured as resistance for bulls to overcome, while price so far has topped out lower.
“Each Bear Market Relief Rally thus far would retrace sharply in the week following a strong breakout rally,” he wrote in ongoing X analysis.
“Next weeks will be crucial. But maybe even already next week we’ll know whether Bitcoin can sustain these highs or not.”
An accompanying chart showed what Rekt Capital subsequently called a series of macro lower highs, potentially reinforcing the bear market despite recent strength.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on traders’ expectations of 2026 playing out in a similar manner to previous bear markets, with 2022 showing the most similarities in terms of timing.
“If history repeats, Bitcoin will try to get as close as possible to ~$93,000 in 2027. But first, Bitcoin needs to fully confirm its Bear Market bottom and fully confirm a break of the Macro Downtrend,” Rekt Capital added.
BTC price on track for best August in nine years
Bitcoin consolidated over the weekend, with price circling $77,500 at the time of writing, still up 22% month-to-date in its best performing August since 2017, per data from CoinGlass.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
The run-up saw the weekly candle reclaim several key price points, including the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders (STHs) — wallets holding a UTXO for less than 155 days — at $68,700. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant thus calculated STH net profitability at just over 11%.
“At the same time, Long-Term Holder profitability moved from approximately breakeven to +18.5%, while New Money profitability rose from -1.4% to +12.7%,” it reported on Monday.
Examining the cost basis of UTXOs as a whole, CryptoQuant noted that so-called “new money” now has a breakeven point at $73,000, above both the STH and LTH cost basis, leaving less margin for downside protection should BTC/USD reverse to attempt to find new support lower.
“That makes the 68K-73K region the key area to watch. Holding above it would suggest that the profitability reset is becoming structurally durable. Losing it would quickly push a large portion of recent buyers back into loss,” it added.
Bitcoin UTXO distribution by cohort age (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Fed’s Warsh faces the music at Jackson Hole
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and chair Kevin Warsh this week as the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium gets underway.
The event, which will feature central bankers from over 70 countries, sees Warsh’s first keynote speech as Fed chair and his first public speaking appearance since the press conference that followed the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Warsh has maintained a tight-lipped stance on financial policy, especially when it comes to future interest-rate changes — a topic to which crypto and risk assets are sensitive. Recent inflation data has supported a softening of policy going forward, but the ever-present threat of oil-price spikes from the US-Iran war has kept markets wary.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 63.1% odds of rates remaining at their current 3.50-3.75% level after the September FOMC meeting.
Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME…
cointelegraph.com