After bracing for a fourth consecutive annual supply deficit, the global platinum market is now facing severe whiplash after a new forecast for a 265,000 ounce surplus for the year.
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) slashed its 2026 total platinum demand forecast by 18 percent to 7.08 million ounces in its latest quarterly report, ending a multi-year trend of supply shortages.
Macro squeeze triggers investor exit
The platinum price surged to an all-time high near US$2,924 per ounce in late January, acting as a high-beta proxy to the gold rally. By June 30, however, it had plummeted to a seven month low of US$1,565.80.
The conflict between the US and Iran, along with subsequent shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, drove energy prices higher and forced global central banks to keep interest rate expectations elevated, crushing investor appetite for non-yielding assets. Investors fled the platinum market in response.
Against that backdrop, the WPIC has revised its 2026 platinum investment demand forecast down by 601,000 ounces; it is now expecting a net outflow of 83,000 ounces for the year.
“The shift to a forecast platinum market surplus in 2026 is overwhelmingly due to investment outflows that occurred during the first half of the year against a backdrop of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty,” WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said in a September 9 press release accompanying the WPIC’s report.
Physical demand from the jewelry sector compounded the investment exodus. Global platinum jewelry fabrication is expected to fall 15 percent to 1.88 million ounces this year, driven almost entirely by declines in China.
A fragile surplus built on scrap
On the supply side, higher prices early in the year incentivized the processing of hoarded material.
The WPIC expects global recycling supply to increase 8 percent to 1.8 million ounces in 2026, offsetting a flat outlook for primary mine production. Total platinum supply will rise 2 percent to 7.35 million ounces.
Despite the headline surplus, the physical platinum market remains fragile. The WPIC has also revised its 2025 deficit estimate upward by 249,000 ounces to 1.44 million ounces.
“The modest forecast surplus follows three consecutive years of significant deficit and does little to reduce the platinum market’s reliance on exceptionally lean and increasingly illiquid above ground stocks,” Raymond added.
Even with this year’s projected surplus in platinum, total aboveground stocks will only reach 2.01 million ounces by year end, representing just 3.4 months of global demand.
While traditional automotive demand is forecast to fall 4 percent to 2.9 million ounces, industrial buyers are quietly accumulating the metal to build out artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Total industrial demand will grow 5 percent to 2.38 million ounces in 2026. Hyperscale cloud operators require high-capacity enterprise hard-disk drives and low-dielectric glass fiber for printed circuit boards, both of which rely heavily on platinum.
“China has earmarked nearly US$300 billion for AI infrastructure development through 2030, together with the US privately-funded buildout of AI technology, currently estimated at US$500 billion, creating new demand for platinum group metals across a wide range of applications,” Raymond added.
Experts divided on platinum outlook
Analysts remain divided on how the market will price these conflicting signals through the end of 2026.
Eugenia Mykuliak, founder and executive director of B2PRIME Group, emphasized in a mid-year email to the Investing News Network that platinum retains a distinct operational profile from gold.
“Platinum and palladium face quite a different set of challenges, though. Their outlook is tied more closely to industrial activity and automotive demand than to monetary policy,” she said.
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) analysts remain bullish, targeting an average platinum price of US$3,000 by Q4 based on the long-term structural constraints in South African mining. Conversely, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) issued a highly cautious outlook in July, projecting that platinum will average just US$1,800 by the end of 2026.
According to the WPIC’s Raymond, platinum will likely trend with overall precious metals sentiment in the coming months, which could trigger a rebound in investment demand — “especially should interest rate increases fail to materialise or be lower than expected.”
Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
www.nasdaq.com