The ethanol effect
What changed the market is ethanol. Maize diverted to fuel rose from 0.83 Mt in 2022-23 to 7.54 Mt in 2023-24 and 13.1 Mt in 2024-25, and ethanol now takes about a quarter of the roughly 50 Mt of grain India consumes, against almost nothing in 2021-22. Poultry feed still leads at 44%, ahead of starch at 14% and livestock feed at 10%.
Calculations show that maize ethanol saved about US$3.7 billion (about Rs 31,600 crore) in foreign exchange between 2022-23 and 2024-25 and displaced around 5.7 Mt of crude oil. The maize behind it was worth about Rs 46,500 crore to growers at minimum support prices. Grain-based distillery capacity has now overtaken molasses-based capacity. The arithmetic has limits. The savings are back-calculated and are gross: the 2024-25 saving of about US$2.2 billion was only 1.6% of the crude import bill.
The arithmetic
Here optimism meets a shortfall. Imports were about 0.9 Mt in 2024-25. If E20 blending holds without diverting sugar, ethanol alone will need 15-18 Mt of maize by 2026-27, and a move to E27 or E30 around 2030 would lift that to 18-25 Mt. Feed adds steadier demand. Poultry is growing at about 8% a year, adding roughly 1.5 Mt to annual maize demand. Dairy is growing at about 6%, and starch and derivatives are expanding at about 10% a year to 2030. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biogas and bioplastics are small today but growing fast, with SAF demand projected at about 158 kilotonnes by 2030. Together, demand points to 64-72 Mt by 2030 and 97-110 Mt by 2047, against a 2047 production target of only 86 Mt.
Where the tonnes will come from It is argued that the yield gap is a kharif, rainfed and management problem, not a national ceiling. India averaged 3.82 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) in 2025-26, against 5.7 t/ha worldwide and 10.9 t/ha in the US. But rabi maize already yields 5.74 t/ha, and West Bengal (7.0 t/ha), Telangana (5.9 t/ha), Bihar (5.7 t/ha) and Tamil Nadu (5.5 t/ha) are at or above the world average.
Single-cross hybrids cover 55-60% of the area and deliver about 5 t/ha against a national 3.5 t/ha. With about 14.4 million hectares under the crop, every extra tonne per hectare adds roughly 14 Mt. Management matters as much as seed. Across 8,434 farmer fields, zero-till planters delivered a median 8.25 t/ha against 4.5 t/ha for broadcasting. In eastern India, demonstrations by ICAR’s Indian Institute of Maize Research (ICAR-IIMR) showed maize out-yielding paddy: 9.8 t/ha against 4.5 t/ha in West Bengal.
ICAR’s 2030 plan lifts kharif yields from 2.9 to 4.0 t/ha, rabi yields from 5.3 t/ha to 6.5 t/ha and adds 2-3 million hectares in rice fallows. That could take output to about 70 Mt from 55.09 Mt in 2025-26, which is the steepest sustained rise in the historical series. Water is the caution. Expansion must not repeat the rice-wheat system’s water trajectory, and drip fertigation with mulch can deliver 20% or more in extra output while saving up to 40% of water, alongside zero tillage, residue retention and legume intercropping.
Breeding for the buyer
The science is shifting from volume to end-use quality. Distilleries want fermentable starch, and ICAR-IIMR is targeting 64-65%; waxy maize converts at 93% against 88% for normal maize. Feed mills buy on moisture (12-14%), aflatoxin and broken-grain limits. Breeders are being asked to start with the end-user and work backwards to the trait. Genome editing for waxy and high-amylose starch, low-lignin stover and heat tolerance is on the agenda; the focus on genome edited crops has already produced two edited rice varieties in 2025.
The chain is only as strong as its weakest link
The harder problem is delivery rather than science. A farmer can grow a perfect crop, but if drying capacity is inadequate or no distillery or feed mill offers a reliable contract, the incentive collapses. Yield gains stick only when the surrounding ecosystem is built to hold them. Assam built one in under two years, and West Bengal did too: yields rose 38% and maize area doubled.
The delivery chain ICAR proposes to begin with the market assurances to start with, moves to seed supply and farmer producer organisations growing to contract with custom-hired planters and dryers, and ends in forward contracts with distilleries and feed mills. ICAR is also pressing for higher research and development, from both the government and private sector, and for incentives and carbon credits for farmers who shift from rice to maize.
The bottom line
For investors and policymakers, the maize story has three layers. Demand is policy-anchored through ethanol blending and structurally supported by poultry, dairy and starch growth. The supply response is technically feasible but needs coordinated spending on seed, mechanisation and procurement. And ethanol’s economics rest on energy-security and farm-income logic rather than cost parity with petrol.
India’s maize planners have set themselves a demanding test: add roughly 15 Mt by 2030 and keep climbing towards 100 Mt by 2047, without letting imports fill the gap or letting maize become another water-hungry crop. The system, with an agro food value chain can deliver but the procurement, seed supply and farm-gate prices can keep pace is the open question.
The author is Secretary, Department of Agricultural Research & Education (DARE), Government of India & Director General, ICAR, Views expressed are personal.
m.economictimes.com