5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a “massive” week in a precarious position as key support stays out of reach for bulls.

After fresh losses across crypto markets over the weekend, BTC/USD closed the week below $26,000 for the first time in three months.

Both Bitcoin and altcoins continue to struggle thanks to legal battles raging in the United States and their impact on sentiment.

Fragile markets will now encounter a slew of volatility triggers, however, as U.S. macro data releases accompany the next steps in the crypto legal debacle.

In what promises to be five days full of surprises, traders will likely experience none of the lackluster sideways price action which was characteristic of crypto markets before the U.S. upheaval.

How will the coming week shape up? Cointelegraph takes a look at the major things to consider when it comes to Bitcoin and wider crypto market price action.

Bitcoin loses key trend line, but some remain bullish

Bitcoin price closed the weekly candle in a disappointing position thanks to last-minute downside wiping value from crypto as a whole.

The removal of various altcoins by certain trading platforms concerned about U.S. legal ramifications sent prices tumbling — and led BTC/USD to its lowest weekly close since mid-March, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

In doing so, the pair also locked out the 200-week moving average (MA) as support.

“A BTC Weekly Candle Close below the 200-week MA could confirm it as a lost support,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned beforehand.

“In that case, $BTC could relief rally into the MA next week, potentially to flip it into new resistance. This sort of turn of technical events could precede additional downside.”

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, held similar concerns about the fate of the total crypto market cap.

Mayday, mayday.

Total market capitalization is beneath the 200-Week MA and EMA.

Needs to get back above $1.04T during this week to avoid further downwards momentum for #Crypto. pic.twitter.com/J5lb8G5APU

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 12, 2023

With traders’ downside targets already extending to $24,000 and below, some took the opportunity for more optimistic takes on both shorter and longer timeframes.

Daan Crypto Trades noted upside potential thanks to the weekend losses opening up a CME futures gap.

That gap stands between $26,150 and $26,500, with BTC/USD previously “filling” another within hours.

Continuing, popular trader Credible Crypto insisted that despite everything, long-term resistance levels for Bitcoin would not pose much of a problem in the end. $40,000, he repeated, was still a target of choice.

“When you have a major correction down and folks are underwater there is resistance to the upside as moves up are sold into by bag holders. When you have capitulation down and folks have been drowned (forced to sell at the bottom) that sell pressure no longer manifests as we move up because ‘there is no one left to sell,’” part of weekend Twitter commentary read.

“If bag holders dumped at the bottom then the only sell pressure above is from short term traders/profit takers and that’s not enough to stop a major impulsive move in its tracks for long. Expect ‘major resistance levels’ above to get melted through a lot faster than most are expecting.”

Bitcoin runs gauntlet ahead of “massive” macro week

The coming week offers a rare deluge of potential crypto price triggers from the wider economic and geopolitical establishment.

MASSIVE Week:

Monday:
– Deadline for Binance and Binance US to respond to SEC’s application for a temporary restraining order

Tuesday:
– Motion for temporary Binance US restraining order hearing
– Hinman’s documents release (XRP)
– CPI Data Release

Wednesday:
– US Rate…

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 12, 2023

In addition to the ongoing ramifications of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) versus multiple exchanges, macroeconomic data promises volatility of its own.

June 13 will see the May print for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, and unlike last time, markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to enact a pause in interest rate hikes.

This would end an uninterrupted hiking cycle which began in late 2021 — right when Bitcoin saw its current all-time high.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a pause stood at 75% at the time of writing on June 12.

With a loosening of economic conditions on the horizon, market commentators both within crypto and beyond are considering the odds of a risk asset rally.

Biggest opportunity for equities to go higher? Rapid decline in inflation as rents and food costs come down, which allows Fed to pause int rate hikes in June and ultimately reduce…