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5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the end of Q1 near two-week highs as trader sentiment diverges from improving technicals.

  • Bitcoin market participants are positioned for a fresh BTC price dip, which could even form new multimonth lows.

  • PCE week coincides with the last full trading week of March, and risk assets are showing a hint of optimism.

  • When it comes to BTC price strength, RSI is increasingly demanding bullish continuation.

  • Bitcoin’s short-term holders are under pressure amid serious unrealized losses.

  • Stablecoin stocks on Binance hit record highs in what research hopes is a positive signal for investor confidence.

Bitcoin traders see downside reversal next

Bitcoin is nearing a rematch with two-week highs as the week gets underway, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Among traders, however, the mood remains firmly cautious.

Bulls have a lot to do in order to spark a reliable uptrend, they warn, and despite being up nearly 15% versus its multimonth lows from earlier this month, BTC/USD may well see a fresh drop.

“Market sentiment has been restored after hitting the short liquidations at $87.1k. Now, it could be a good opportunity for the MM to shake out the market again,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in his latest X analysis. 

“We may see a pullback from here over the next 1-2 weeks, a retrace of this recovery.”

BTC liquidity chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo eyed downside liquidity nearer $80,000 as a potentially lucrative target, advising followers to “mind the risk.”

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Fellow trading account HTL-NL described the near-term scenario as “not looking good” for bulls, eyeing $90,000 as a ceiling before a reversal kicks in.

Even among its more ardent supporters, the specter of the mid-$70,000 lingers. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, argues that BTC/USD could even advance to new all-time highs of $110,000 before crashing 30%.

“Again I still think we go lower before we make a run back to 88-90k resistance retest,” popular trader Roman meanwhile added on short timeframes.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on several key support trend lines in need of a reclaim as part of any BTC price recovery.

These included the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, currently at $85,050 and $85,500, respectively.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200 SMA, 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

PCE week comes in the shadow of tariffs

The last full trading week of Q1 2025 gets underway with a hint of relief for risk assets as stocks end a four-week losing streak.

A wild ride for equities since the year began is finally coming to a close, and with it an even more volatile period for Bitcoin and crypto.

That said, more surprises could come before the quarterly candle close.

March 28 is the main date in traders’ diaries this week, hosting the February print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. 

Known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, PCE came in below expectations last month, with the upcoming numbers broadly expected to be identical.

Citing the Fed’s own estimates, financial market research firm Bespoke saw positive developments for risk-on sentiment developing.

“The Fed’s inflation model currently estimates that headline and core for both CPI and PCE will all have 2-handles by March,” it observed last week.  

“Makes room for further cuts.”

Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool meanwhile show market odds for interest rate cuts unchanged, with the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the likely timeframe for financial conditions to ease.

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, due to go live on April 2, could temper any optimism.

At a press conference following the latest FOMC meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited tariffs as a “driving factor” in increasing inflation expectations.

“You may have seen that goods inflation moved up pretty significantly in the first two months of the year. Trying to track that back to actual tariff increases, given what was tariff and what was not, very, very challenging. So, some of it,” he said. 

“The answer is clearly some of it, a good part of it is coming from tariffs.”

RSI signals tease key BTC price breakouts

When it comes to early bull market continuation signals, Bitcoin is currently enjoying several classics at once.

These all hinge on the relative strength index (RSI), a key momentum indicator which is in the process of breaking out across both long and short timeframes.

Market observers are keenly eyeing bullish divergences on RSI, which on weekly timeframes is abandoning a downtrend in place ever since November 2024.

Originally spotted by popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital last week, the process is continuing, with RSI seeking to confirm the downtrend…

cointelegraph.com

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