Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility has been shrinking in the past few days. The standard deviation of daily Bitcoin returns for the last 30 and 60 days as calculated by the Bitcoin Volatility Index is at 2.63%, the least volatile it has been since November 2020.
Generally, tight ranges are followed by strong price expansions. In 2020, the low volatility period in November was followed by a sharp rally in mid-December, which resulted in a supercycle that carried the price all the way to $64,854 on April 14, 2021.
However, there is no certainty that the volatility expansion will happen only to the upside. The price could break out in either direction. Commentator Vince Prince warned that the high leverage ratio of Bitcoin could trigger a big chunk of stop-losses if the $40,000 support breaks down.
Could Bitcoin start a new up-move or will bears pull the price below the support levels, triggering a sell-off in altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been trading near the 20-day exponential moving average ($44,181) for the past few days. Although bulls have not been able to push the price above this resistance, a minor positive is that they have not given up much ground.
If the price turns up from the current level or $41,725.95, the bulls will make one more attempt to clear the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA and the horizontal resistance at $45,456.
If they do that, the pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($47,680) where the bulls may again encounter stiff resistance from the bears. A break and close above this resistance could push the pair to $52,088.
Conversely, if the price breaks below $41,725.95, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $39,600. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it breaks down, the selling could intensify and the pair may plummet toward $30,000.
ETH/USDT
Ether’s (ETH) recovery off the support line of the descending channel fizzled out near the 20-day EMA ($3,439), which suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will now try to pull the price below $3,188. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to $2,928.83. This is an important support to watch out for because if it collapses, the decline could extend to $2,652.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to push the pair above the resistance line of the channel. If that happens, the pair could rise to $4,200.
BNB/USDT
Binance Coin (BNB) failed to break above the resistance line of the descending channel pattern on Jan. 16. This may have sparked selling by short-term traders, pulling the price below the 20-day EMA ($488).
If bears pull the price below $466.50, the BNB/USDT pair could decline toward the support line of the channel. The flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint, indicate equilibrium between the bulls and bears.
If the price rebounds off $466.50, the bulls will again try to thrust the price above the channel and the 50-day SMA ($530). If they succeed, it will signal a possible change in trend. The pair could then rally to $572.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) broke and closed above the 50-day SMA ($1.34) on Jan. 16, indicating that bulls are attempting a comeback. The price could now reach the resistance line of the descending channel.
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating that bulls have the upper hand in the short term. If buyers propel and sustain the price above the channel, it will signal a change in trend.
The ADA/USDT pair could first rally to $1.87 and if this level is crossed, the next move could be to $2.47. On the other hand, if the price turns down from the resistance line, the pair could again drop to the moving averages.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) continues to trade inside the descending channel pattern. The bulls attempted to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($154) on Jan. 13 but failed. This suggests that bears are selling on every minor rally.
The bears will now attempt to pull the price below the support at $130. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $116. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could sink the pair to the support line of the channel.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the resistance line of the channel. A break and close above the channel will signal a possible change in trend.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($0.79)…
cointelegraph.com