Bitcoin (BTC) is witnessing a see-saw battle near $40,000 with both the bulls and the bears trying to gain the upper hand. The volatility could remain high as the markets await the United States Federal Reserve’s policy decision due on March 16.
Analyst Willy Woo suggests that Bitcoin could witness a capitulation event based on cost basis, a metric that indicates the transfer of Bitcoin from inexperienced to experienced traders. Such sharp declines usually suggest the formation of market bottoms.
However, Glassnode believes that a capitulation has been avoided because the sell-offs have been absorbed by a relatively strong market. Although 82% of the short-term holders’ coins are in loss, Glassnode considers this to be a late-stage bear market behavior where investors hold their coins until they turn profitable.
Could the Fed’s policy decision start a trending move in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin turned down from the moving averages on March 15 but the long tail on the candlestick indicates strong demand at lower levels. The bulls continued their buying and have pushed the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($40,151).
If bulls sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the overhead zone between $45,400 and the resistance line of the ascending channel. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense in this zone.
If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the pair could extend its stay inside the channel for a few more days. The flat moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint also suggest range-bound action is likely in the short term.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and plummets below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The bears will then try to sink the price below the support line of the channel and resume the downtrend.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) bounced off the support line of the symmetrical triangle and the buyers are attempting to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($2,763).
If they succeed, the price could rise to the psychological level at $3,000 and then to the resistance line of the triangle. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the triangle to signal a possible change in trend.
The RSI has also formed a symmetrical triangle and a breakout from it could signal that buyers have the upper hand.
This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the support line of the triangle. That could open the doors for a possible drop to $2,159.
BNB/USDT
The buyers are trying to push Binance Coin (BNB) above the moving averages but the bears are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to stall the recovery near the moving averages as they have done on the three previous occasions.
Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI has risen above 48, indicating that bulls are attempting a comeback. If buyers drive and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($388), the BNB/USDT pair could rise to $425 and thereafter to $445.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling near resistance levels. The bears will then try to pull the price below the strong support at $350.
XRP/USDT
XRP turned down from the downtrend line on March 12 and dropped to the moving averages. Although the bulls have defended the moving averages, they have failed to achieve a strong rebound off it.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the downtrend line to gain the upper hand. The XRP/USDT pair could then rally to $0.91 and later to the psychological level at $1.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.69, the advantage will turn in favor of the bears. The pair could then slide to the strong support level at $0.62.
LUNA/USDT
Terra’s LUNA token broke above the overhead resistance at $94 on March 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The bears pulled the price back below $94 on March 15.
The bears will now try to pull and sustain the price below the 20-day exponential moving average ($84). If they succeed, the LUNA/USDT pair could drop to $70. Such a move could suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level or rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the buyers will again attempt to push the price toward $105. A break and close above this resistance could indicate the…
cointelegraph.com