Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of September still trying to cement $20,000 as support as bears clinch control.The largest cryptocurrency emerges
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of September still trying to cement $20,000 as support as bears clinch control.
The largest cryptocurrency emerges from a sideways weekend with a weekly close almost exactly at the $20,000 mark — but that significant psychological level is already struggling.
Expectations already favored further downside during this month — the so-called “Septembear” phenomenon which normally sees BTC price lose ground in September — and so far, there has been little evidence that this year will be different to most.
BTC/USD is down 1.5% in September 2022, and while the losses are modest, there are plenty of potential catalysts on the horizon.
Macroeconomic turmoil remains the name of the game in much of the world, the emphasis increasingly shifting to Europe as the energy crisis unfolds and the euro reaches twenty-year lows versus the U.S. dollar.
Stocks are also struggling in the face of a still strong greenback, leaving little room for a breakout to the upside for cryptocurrencies.
That said, macro BTC price bottom signals have been flowing in over recent weeks, resulting in a handful of analysts remaining quietly confident on the outlook.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential Bitcoin price triggers for the week ahead as $20,000 forms the key focus.
BTC just seals $20,000 weekly close
Bitcoin bulls have had it easy this weekend as a lack of volatility resulted in two days of fluctuating around $20,000.
The absence of overall direction meant that existing price forecasts remained intact, with even the weekly close itself continuing to leave the market guessing.
That came in the form of practically exactly $20,000 on Bitstamp, followed by downward price pressure in the first hours of the new week, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
Traders already expecting a retest of lower levels close to June’s $17,600, however, saw little reason to alter their perspective.
Going on vacation, lemme know when we reclaim 20.7k and head to 23k-ish. Thanks frens $BTC https://t.co/biYiFrDm4t
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) September 4, 2022
Popular trader Il Capo of Crypto reiterated plans for a short squeeze toward $23,000, followed by a reversal with $16,000 as a potential floor.
Fellow trader Cheds meanwhile confirmed that the 4-hour chart “continues to range” after bouncing from range lows into the weekly close.
In his latest update, meanwhile, TMV Crypto revealed a downside bias on the same timeframes, highlighting relative strength index (RSI) data.
“H4 RSI is bearish at the moment. loosing 19700 would take $btc to sweep Aug Lows and closer to July lows of 18777,” it read.
“If bulls can flip 19986.5 levels on H4 as support will then be looking to long to 20.8.”
Data from on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators meanwhile showed bulls “fighting” for $20,000 at the close, with new bid support entering immediately below on the Binance order book.
“Be careful. This week is going to be spicy,” a subsequent tweet concluded following the close.
Europe energy crisis spooks macro stage
On macro markets, the Federal Reserve is due to take a back seat this week with important economic data next due on Sep. 13 in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for August.
There is little chance for risk asset traders to rest, however, as events in Europe are already providing a new theater for volatility.
As of Sep. 5, the euro is trading at its lowest against the U.S. dollar since September 2002, having passed under $0.99.
The weakness comes on the back of instability in energy markets. Russia, which was due to reopen its Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline at the weekend, suddenly changed course over maintenance issues, with gas supplies now set to be suspended indefinitely.
This in turn followed news that the European Union plans to implement a price cap on Russian energy in line with the G7, to which Russia responded with a threat to halt all energy imports.
As a result, gas markets are surging once more as the week gets underway, having previously plummeted from record highs.
European Gas jumps as much as 35% as #Russia keeps Nord Stream link shut. Now up 21%. pic.twitter.com/2SVRbOijKX
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 5, 2022
For Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the only way for the euro was likely down.
Reiterating a previous hypothesis from a blog post earlier this year, Hayes described the euro as entering a “doom loop” over the weekend.
“Either: 1. USD liquidity increases to bring down the value of the Dollar and help Europe afford its energy import bill Or 2. Europe reaches a Détente with Russia. I guess the 3rd option is turn off industry and residential heating,” he wrote.
Such is the extent of the crisis that even PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price models, suggested that a buy the…
cointelegraph.com