What is a call option, anyway? A call option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to pu
What is a call option, anyway?
A call option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to purchase an asset (in this case, Bitcoin) at a predetermined price before a specific date.
If the market price rises above that strike price, the option becomes profitable, or “in the money.” If it doesn’t, the option expires worthless.
So, when someone buys a $300,000 Bitcoin (BTC) call option, they’re essentially betting that Bitcoin’s price will have risen above $300,000 by the time that option expires. In this case, the expiry is June 27, just a few weeks away.
If it doesn’t rise? The option expires worthless.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Bitcoin is trading around $104,183 as of June 2, 2025. That means the buyers of these options are betting on Bitcoin’s price nearly tripling in less than a month.
That’s why many in the market are comparing this bet to a lottery ticket. The odds are low, but the potential payoff is massive.
The chart below shows a concentration of Bitcoin call options at higher strike prices, with sharp spikes around $62,500, $70,600 and $81,750. This indicates that many traders are heavily betting on Bitcoin’s price rising.
When call options significantly outweigh puts, it reflects overly bullish sentiment, a classic contrarian signal. If negative news emerges, these positions can unwind quickly, triggering sell-offs.
Did you know? Deribit crypto options exchange noted that the $300,000 call for June 27 has become the most popular strike, with more than $600 million in notional open interest.
Why would anyone bet on $300,000 Bitcoin in a month?
Bitcoin is trading around $104,183 as of June 2, 2025. So, expecting a nearly tripled price in just a few weeks seems ambitious.
But for some traders, that’s the appeal.
Here’s why:
- Low cost, high reward: These far-out-of-the-money call options are relatively cheap. You can risk a small amount for the chance of a massive return.
- Volatility is king: Crypto markets are known for dramatic moves. While a jump to $300,000 in a month is unlikely, short-term bullish sentiment can drive up demand for these options.
- FOMO and market psychology: Crypto is driven heavily by sentiment. When others are placing bold bets, it creates a feedback loop. You don’t want to miss the rocket if it takes off, even if the odds say it won’t.
Is the $300,000 call option bet a bullish signal or a warning sign?
At first glance, the surge in demand for $300,000 Bitcoin call options might seem like a show of strong confidence in Bitcoin’s future. After all, why would so many traders be willing to bet on such a massive price jump if they didn’t believe it could happen?
But some analysts are urging caution, and here’s why.
Understanding market sentiment through options
In the world of financial markets, options trading activity is often used as a way to gauge investor sentiment. One important metric that professionals watch is something called “implied volatility skew,” basically, how much more expensive call options (bullish bets) are compared to put options (bearish bets).
When traders are overwhelmingly buying call options, especially in the short term, it can signal that everyone is leaning in the same direction, and that usually means the market is getting crowded and overconfident.
What is implied volatility skew, and why does it matter?
In simple terms:
- Implied volatility skew compares the price of call options to put options.
- When calls become much more expensive than puts, it means traders expect prices to rise quickly.
- But extreme skew levels can be a red flag because they often occur near market tops, when optimism is at its highest.
Real example: What’s happening now
- According to research firm 10x Research, short-term (seven-day) Bitcoin call options are trading at a 10% premium to puts.
- The volatility skew has dropped to -10%, showing calls are far more expensive than their bearish counterparts.
Historically, extreme bullish skew like this has preceded market pullbacks. It’s a classic contrarian indicator, meaning when too many people are bullish, the market often moves the other way. For instance, in April 2021, Bitcoin was trading near its all-time high around $64,000. Call options were heavily favored, and volatility skew dropped sharply, just like now.
- Sentiment was euphoric: Institutions were “buying in”; Coinbase had just had an initial public offering (IPO); and bullish news was everywhere. But the bullish narrative was already priced in.
- Within weeks, Bitcoin dropped over 50%, falling to under $30,000 by July.
But why does it matter now? Because:
- The bullish narrative is already “priced in.”
- There’s little room for upside surprises.
- Any negative news can trigger a quick sell-off.
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