Bitcoin joins the safe-haven debate as trade tensions rise For decades, investors fled to gold and
Bitcoin joins the safe-haven debate as trade tensions rise
For decades, investors fled to gold and US Treasurys during crises, but in today’s digital, decentralized world, Bitcoin is starting to enter the safe-haven conversation. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of resilience during global turbulence, including trade wars, prompting a fresh look at its role in preserving value.
Let’s rewind a bit to understand where this question comes from.
For decades, whenever uncertainty rattled the global economy, be it war, inflation, or sudden political shifts, investors did what they always do — run to the safest hills. Historically, those hills were made of gold or filled with US Treasury bonds. But things are changing.
In a world that’s more digital, decentralized, and volatile than ever, people are asking whether Bitcoin might now be part of the conversation as a modern safe-haven asset, especially during disruptive events like trade wars.
To get into this, you need to explore what makes an asset a safe haven in the first place, how Bitcoin has behaved during recent trade-related turbulence and whether it has earned its spot alongside more traditional defensive plays.
First, the concept of a “safe haven” isn’t about making a profit. It’s about preserving value. In times of crisis, investors want assets that hold up under pressure. Gold has done this for decades. The US dollar, despite being fiat, is often seen as a safe haven due to its global reserve status and the strength of US financial institutions.
Treasury bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. All these assets are supposed to be relatively low in volatility and high in liquidity.
Now, here’s the twist: Bitcoin is not low in volatility. It’s notoriously wild. But despite that, you might have seen moments where it behaves like a safe haven. Not always, but sometimes, and that’s interesting.
Isn’t it?
The 2018-19 trade war vs Bitcoin’s role in times of turmoil
During the 2018–19 US-China trade war, Bitcoin surged as traditional markets faltered, hinting at its potential as a hedge in turbulent times. While its “digital gold” narrative gained traction, Bitcoin’s behavior often mirrors that of speculative tech stocks, keeping its safe-haven status an open question.
Take the 2018–19 US-China trade war, for example. As tariff threats escalated and tensions between the two economic giants intensified, global markets became increasingly jittery. Tech stocks took a hit. Commodities wavered. Amid all this, something strange happened. Bitcoin quietly surged. From April to July 2019, the price of Bitcoin climbed from about $5,000 to over $12,000.
It wasn’t alone. Gold also rallied during that time. However, this was one of the earliest signs that Bitcoin might not be just a risk-on asset but could also serve as a hedge in turbulent times. That period sparked a new narrative: Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
The fixed supply of 21 million coins gave it scarcity. Its decentralized nature meant it wasn’t bound to any single government’s policies. And because it lived on a global, censorship-resistant network, it was insulated from the kind of capital controls that often follow during periods of financial stress. These qualities started to resonate with investors looking for alternatives to traditional safe havens.
To be fair, Bitcoin hasn’t always stuck to the script. While there are moments where it moves inversely to risk assets, more often than not, it behaves like a speculative tech stock, especially over short time frames. Historically, Bitcoin has had a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. So, while the “digital gold” narrative is growing, it still sits side-by-side with the idea of Bitcoin being a high-beta bet for risk-seeking investors.
Did you know? A 2025 study titled Institutional Adoption and Correlation Dynamics: Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Financial Markets analyzed daily data from 2018 to 2025. The study found that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 intensified following key institutional milestones, with peaks reaching 0.87 in 2024. This suggests that Bitcoin has transitioned from an alternative asset toward a more integrated financial instrument.
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