Crypto’s optimism isn’t just hype. It’s a structural feature.

Opinion by: Oleksandr Lutskevych, Founder and CEO of CEX.io

Bitcoin markets have consistently shown greater emotional resilience than traditional equities during multiple global shocks.

While some on Wall Street found this “impressive” during the “Liberation Day” sell-off on April 2, such optimism isn’t a glitch — it’s a pattern that extends across digital assets.

Let’s look closer at Fear and Greed Index dynamics in crypto and stocks. After Donald Trump announced tariffs on nearly all countries in April, the Stock F&G Index dropped from 19 to 3 — a more than 80% plunge and a three-year low. In contrast, the Crypto F&G Index declined from 44 to 18 — a 59% decrease.

Of course, these indexes aren’t identical. CNN’s Stock F&G Index tracks traditional sentiment through signals like VIX volatility, safe-haven demand and market breadth. The Crypto F&G Index relies on price momentum, volume and social sentiment metrics. Despite different inputs, both aim to measure the same thing: market emotion.

When viewed side by side during macro shocks, the contrast in mood becomes obvious. When macro winds turn cold, stock investors typically panic harder and recover more slowly than crypto investors.

May 2022 offers an illustrative example. On May 4, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0.5% to 1%, sparking recession fears that spilled into crypto. Then, on May 9 to May 13, LUNA and UST collapsed. Yet the Stock F&G Index fell 82% (to 4), while Crypto F&G dropped 62% (to 8).

Even while crypto was already under pressure and hit harder by LUNA’s collapse, which contributed to several bankruptcies within the industry, crypto remained less terrified than the stock market. Crypto sentiment took longer to rebound, however, due to the established bear market at the time.

Crypto’s inherent optimism is a strength, not a flaw

Some may call crypto’s optimism naive or irrational. In reality, it’s structural.

The volatility native to crypto recalibrated investor expectations. A 20% drawdown in equities is a bear market. In crypto, it could be a healthy correction. The scale and frequency of price swings conditioned crypto enthusiasts to better withstand market shocks.

There’s also a cultural divide. The stock market is built by and for institutions. It’s cautious and slow-moving. Crypto was born from rebellion and raised by retail, which rapidly shifts to new narratives.

Still, crypto’s optimism isn’t immune to erosion. As institutional influence grows and Bitcoin continues to correlate with equities, Wall Street fears are increasingly bleeding into the sector. During the tariff scare, sentiment recovery timelines were nearly identical across stocks and crypto — a possible sign of optimism erosion.

Even so, crypto optimism remains structurally sound.

The shield of crypto optimism

What protects crypto optimism is the presence of two dominant, and very different, groups.

The first — the believers — view crypto as the future. Within this group, Bitcoin (BTC) adopters tend to see it as a store of value and hedge. To them, short-term volatility is just noise, a distraction from the long-term vision. That perspective leads them to become long-term holders, unfazed by daily fluctuations.

Recent: Dogecoin traders predict 180% DOGE price rally if Bitcoin gains continue

Altcoin believers, meanwhile, draw strength from rapid innovation. New protocols, narratives and technologies keep the sector in constant motion. That ability to reinvent — and rebound — reinforces the idea that crypto is an ecosystem defined by momentum, not stagnation.

There is also a second group, which primarily consists of recent arrivals. They see crypto more as a speculative bet. They comprise many short-term holders and tend to be more reactive to news. 

When fear spreads, this second group primarily rushes for the exits, as shown by more frequent peaks in Bitcoin’s Binary CDD for short-term holders (STHs) than long-term holders (LTHs). This group is also more susceptible to the erosion of optimism.

If, however, this second group is the minority, as in Bitcoin, where LTHs control over 65% of BTC’s supply, then all these macro-related fears that creep into the space would have only a limited, short-term effect.

Beyond simple belief

The conviction of believers in a bright future is not based on blind faith but has a solid foundation. In Bitcoin’s case, this foundation rests on a firm, committed holder base, a fixed supply, and a clear, predictable monetary philosophy that stands out during periods of economic uncertainty. These aren’t speculative claims — they’re principles that have gained credibility over time.

Actions also backed this optimism. While markets panicked over tariffs in March-April, Bitcoin LTHs accumulated over 300,000 BTC. Liquidity strengthened, with 1% market depth ending Q1 at $500 million, indicating continued confidence and participation from market makers and investors.

Meanwhile, macro metrics…