Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) enters a new week with a question mark over the fate of the market ahead of another key United States monetary policy decision.

After sealing a successful weekly close — its highest since mid-June — BTC/USD is much more cautious as the Federal Reserve prepares to hike benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

While many hoped that the pair could exit its recent trading range and continue higher, the weight of the Fed is clearly visible as the week gets underway, adding pressure to an already fragile risk asset scene.

That fragility is also showing in Bitcoin’s network fundamentals as miner strain becomes real and the true cost of mining through the bear market shows.

At the same time, there are encouraging signs from some on-chain metrics, with long-term investors still refusing to give in.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the week’s possible market movers in a tense week for crypto, equities and more.

Fed to decide on next rate hike in “another fun” week

The story of the week, all things being equal, is no doubt the Federal Reserve rate hike.

A familiar tale, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) on July 26-27 will see policy makers decide on the extent of the next interest rate move, this tipped to be either 75 or 100 basis points.

U.S. inflation, as in many jurisdictions, is at forty-year highs, the its advance appears to have caught the establishment by surprise as calls for a peak are met with even larger gains.

“Should be another fun one,” Blockware lead insights analyst William Clemente summarized on July 25.

The interest rate decision is due July 27 at 2pm Eastern time, a diary date which could well be accompanied by increased volatility across risk assets.

This has the potential to be exacerbated, one analyst warned, thanks to low summer liquidity and a lack of conviction among buyers.

“Entering ECB/FOMC/Tech Earnings amid the lowest liquidity of the year. Market is back to overbought. Bulls, let it ride,” Twitter account Mac10 wrote.

A previous post also flagged Q2 earnings reports as potentially contributing to a downwards move in line with previous behavior.

Tech Earnings and FOMC have been catalyst for two major crashes in 2022.

“This time will be different” pic.twitter.com/XgS1dDOLce

— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 22, 2022

“BTC and risk assets have pumped higher on FOMC events this year, only to sell off after, is this time different?” fellow analysis account Tedtalksmacro continued.

“June’s FOMC meeting saw the US federal reserve deliver a 75bps hike – the single largest since 1994. More hefty hikes are expected before inflation is ‘normalised.’”

The week is already feeling different to last, even before events begin unfolding — Asian markets are flat in comparison to last week’s bullish tone, one which accompanied a resurgence across Bitcoin and altcoins.

While one argument says that the Fed cannot raise rates much more without tanking the economy, meanwhile, Tedtalksmacro pointed to the employment market as a target for keeping hikes coming.

“Bitcoin will struggle to move past 28k until data deteriorates,” he added.

Spot price fails to nail key moving average

Bitcoin’s latest weekly close was something of a halfway house for bulls, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

While managing its best performance in over a month, BTC/USD missed out on reclaiming the essential 200-week moving average (MA) at $22,800.

After the close, which came in at around $22,500, Bitcoin began falling to the bottom of its latest trading range, still lingering below $22,000 at the time of writing.

Good morning legends

Range high dump during the overnight session on $ETH and $BTC ..

Looking for some relief if we can hold $1460 on $ETH and $21,700 on $BTC

Chart updates to come

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 25, 2022

“Observing IF we find support at $21,666 horizontal. Patience,” popular trader Anbessa told Twitter followers in his latest update.

Fellow account Crypto Chase meanwhile suggested that a return to the 200-week MA would result in further modest upside.

“Chopping around the Daily S/R (red box) with an inability to flip 22.8K (Daily resistance) to support. Multiple attempts to do so, but failing so far,” he wrote alongside explanatory charts.

“If price pushes above again and finds acceptance, I’ll watch 22.8K to become support for potential long entry to 23.2K.”

A later update eyed $21,200 as a potential bearish target, this also forming a support/resistance level on the daily chart.

At $21,900, however, Bitcoin still remains around $1,200 higher versus the same point a week ago.

Elsewhere, the latest price action was not enough to change long-term views. For Venturefounder, a contributor at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, a macro bottom was yet to appear, this potentially coming in as low as…