Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund ETF (Symbol: FXZ), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $70.28 per unit.
With FXZ trading at a recent price near $62.86 per unit, that means that analysts see 11.80% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of FXZ’s underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are Royal Gold Inc (Symbol: RGLD), FMC Corp. (Symbol: FMC), and Valvoline Inc (Symbol: VVV). Although RGLD has traded at a recent price of $99.29/share, the average analyst target is 43.85% higher at $142.83/share. Similarly, FMC has 13.84% upside from the recent share price of $108.21 if the average analyst target price of $123.18/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting VVV to reach a target price of $40.00/share, which is 13.31% above the recent price of $35.30. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of RGLD, FMC, and VVV:
Combined, RGLD, FMC, and VVV represent 6.34% of the First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund ETF. Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
| Name | Symbol | Recent Price | Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target | % Upside to Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund ETF | FXZ | $62.86 | $70.28 | 11.80% |
| Royal Gold Inc | RGLD | $99.29 | $142.83 | 43.85% |
| FMC Corp. | FMC | $108.21 | $123.18 | 13.84% |
| Valvoline Inc | VVV | $35.30 | $40.00 | 13.31% |
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock’s trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
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