Brazil: Inflation Hits Highest Mark Since 2023

The National Consumer Price Index -15 (IPCA-15), considered a preview of Brazil’s official inflation, increased by 0.64% in March after rising 1.23% in February, according to data released on Thursday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

In March 2024, the index had risen by 0.36%. This marks the highest March reading since 2023, when it stood at 0.69%.

The result came in slightly below the median forecast from 28 analysts surveyed by FXLeaders, who had projected a 0.67% increase for the month. Estimates ranged from 0.35% to 0.84%.

Gasoline Drives Inflation Higher

The main driver of March’s price increase was gasoline, which rose 1.83% and contributed 0.10 percentage points to the overall index.

With this latest reading, the IPCA-15 has accumulated a 12-month inflation rate of 5.26%, up from 4.96% in February. Inflation for the first quarter of 2025 (January through March) totaled 1.99%.

Despite the increase, the 12-month figure remained below the median estimate compiled by Valor Data, which projected a rate of 5.29%, with forecasts ranging between 4.95% and 5.47%. Brazil’s central bank targets an inflation rate of 3% for 2025, with a tolerance range of ±1.5 percentage points.

Food and Transport Inflation Accelerate

Among the nine spending categories tracked by the IPCA-15, five saw an acceleration in price increases from February to March. Food and beverages inflation climbed from 0.61% to 1.09%, while transportation costs rose from 0.44% to 0.92%, reflecting the impact of higher fuel prices.

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.