The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is walking a tightrope as we head into the week of April 22–27, 2025. After weeks of selling pressure, the greenback is clinging to support just above $99.00—a zone many see as the last line of defense before a deeper drop.
Last week’s back and forth on tariffs and rate cut bets didn’t help. While President Trump dialed down the threats of more China tariffs, markets are still uneasy. FedWatch data shows traders are still pricing in 86 basis points of cuts by year end, adding to the dollar’s downward momentum.
Technically the DXY is stuck below its 50-day EMA at $100.57, so sellers are still in control. But the MACD is flattening, so maybe momentum is shifting. This week’s data could be the catalyst for a bounce or a breakdown.
Seven Events That Could Move the Dollar
With rate policy on pause for now, traders are focused on macro data. The week ahead is packed with potential market movers:
Tuesday, April 22
- Richmond Manufacturing Index (forecast: -6, previous: -4)
Wednesday, April 23
- FOMC member Waller
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (forecast: 49.3, previous: 50.2)
- Flash Services PMI (forecast: 52.9, previous: 54.4)
- New Home Sales (forecast: 680K, previous: 676K)
Thursday, April 24
- Unemployment Claims (forecast: 215K)
- Core Durable Goods Orders (forecast: +0.2%)
- Durable Goods Orders (forecast: +1.5%)
- Existing Home Sales (forecast: 4.14M, previous: 4.26M)
Friday, April 25
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (forecast: 50.8)
The biggest data points will be Wednesday’s PMI and Thursday’s durable goods. Stronger than expected could lift the dollar by reducing rate cut expectations.
Weekly DXY Outlook: Will the Dollar Bounce or Break?
The DXY is clinging to $99.00–$99.05. A break below this level could see $97.91 or $96.80. If the data surprises to the upside the index could get back to $100.27 with room to $101.28.
Trade Setup
Bullish:
- Entry: Buy above $100.27 (on close)
- Target: $101.28, then $102.26
- Stop: Below $99.00
Bearish:
- Trigger: Close below $99.00 with volume
- Target: $97.91, then $96.80
- Stop: Above $100.00
Tip: This is a data driven trade. Wait for confirmation—especially around PMI and durable goods—before entering.
Final Word
The dollar is at a crossroads. If this week’s data says the U.S. economy is strong the DXY could bounce back. If not, more downside. Either way it’s going to be a big week for the dollar—and for traders sitting on the sidelines, the next move will be a big one.
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