Commodity Forex Breakout in 2021? Cyclical Upturn Forward for AUD & NZD

AUD, NZD 1Q Forecasts: Commodity Forex Breakout in 2021? Cyclical Upturn Forward for AUD & NZD

2021 might show to be the beginning of a commodity-currency bull market, as long-term worth evaluation suggests a cyclical shift could also be afoot for AUD, NZD in opposition to the haven-linked USD.

AUD/USD Month-to-month Chart

Chart ready by Daniel Moss, created with TradingView

The chart above highlights the cyclical nature seen in AUD/USD charges over the previous 24 years, with the forex pair largely adhering to what seems to be an 8-year rotation. It has set vital bottoms in early 2001, late 2008 and 2016.

Latest worth motion seems to be strikingly like that seen early within the bullish cycle ignited in September 2001 and may very well be indicative of additional upside for AUD/USD, given worth has cleared the downtrend extending from the 2013 excessive and stays perched constructively above key help on the psychologically pivot 0.7000 mark.

Furthermore, with the RSI breaking above the downtrend extending from the 2004 extremes – in a similar way to late 2002 – a shift in total market sentiment appears to be taking form.

With that in thoughts, the trade-sensitive change price may very well be poised to considerably lengthen its latest 35% surge from the March nadir, with cycle evaluation suggesting AUD/USD might rise as a lot as 44% from present ranges to finally peak in late 2025.

NZD/USD Month-to-month Chart

Chart ready by Daniel Moss, created with TradingView

NZD/USD charges additionally appear to stick to an 8-year rotation, setting vital bottoms in late 2000, early 2009 and mid-2015.

Bullish RSI divergence seems to sign the tip of every successive cycle and will point out a interval of sustained NZD energy in opposition to the haven-associated USD.

As soon as once more, latest worth motion is notably just like that seen in 2002 and means that NZD/USD might drastically lengthen its 30% rise from the coronavirus-crisis low set in March.

Cycle evaluation implying that the change price might climb a further 39% from present ranges to peak in early 2026.