Forex Signals April 11: Can A Soft PPI Sink USD Further, Send XAU to $3,300?

Yesterday the USD fell 3 cents and XAU printed a new record high, so a soft PPI inflation report today can escalate the moves further.

The U.S. dollar experienced a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after initially gaining on news of President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on all countries except China. While this initially bolstered the dollar, momentum quickly faded as lower-than-expected inflation data pushed expectations for a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. The dollar index (DXY) dropped 1.83%—its sharpest single-day decline since November 2022.

Currency markets saw the U.S. dollar weaken broadly. It dropped 4% against the Swiss franc, falling to 0.82—its lowest level since 2011. Losses also mounted against the euro and yen, with both pairs appreciating around 2% on the day. The soft March CPI report played a major role, as core inflation rose only 0.1% month-over-month, undercutting forecasts of 0.3%. Headline inflation came in at -0.1% instead of the expected 0.1%, marking a clear cooling trend.

Year-over-year, core CPI fell to 2.8% from 3.1%, while headline CPI slowed to 2.4% from 2.8%. The combination of easing inflation and trade relief triggered a temporary surge in risk appetite—but markets quickly pulled back again.

U.S. Stock Markets Snap Back, Then Slide Again

After a historic rally the day prior, U.S. stock markets slipped Thursday as traders reassessed both inflation data and geopolitical developments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 1,000 points at its lowest point, ending the day down 2.5% at 39,593. The S&P 500 dropped 3.46% to 5,267, while the Nasdaq slid 737 points, or 4.31%, to 16,387.33.

The earlier rally had been fueled by Trump’s tariff freeze announcement, which provided some clarity and reduced investor uncertainty, prompting a sharp relief rally of over 3,000 points in the Dow on Wednesday. However, lingering concerns over Chinese retaliatory tariffs, which now exceed 120%, kept sentiment fragile.

Gold prices staged an impressive comeback after steep losses late last week and prices surged over $200 to hit new record highs above $3,190. Oil markets remained choppy, with crude falling steeply to around $60 per barrel, down $2.20 on the day. Meanwhile, U.S. futures rose close to $100, up 3.5%, reflecting continued market whiplash driven by shifting global narratives.

Today’s Forex Events

Looking ahead, market focus will shift to upcoming inflation and sentiment data. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show a slight uptick, with year-over-year PPI forecast at 3.3%, up from 3.2%, and core PPI expected at 3.6%, up from 3.4%. The month-over-month readings are anticipated at 0.2% for the headline and 0.3% for core, both stronger than previous figures.

While these indicators are largely backward-looking, any surprises could still shift sentiment, especially as inflation remains a key driver of monetary policy.

Also on the calendar is the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, expected to come in at 54.7, slightly below the prior reading of 57.0. This survey tends to focus more on personal financial outlooks compared to the Conference Board’s confidence measure, which centers on employment. Its expectations index is also a component of the Leading Economic Index, underscoring its relevance to future consumer spending.

The U.S. stock market and the dollar experienced weakness throughout the week apart from Friday when it reclaimed some of the losses, with extreme volatility dominating trading activity. As a result, we executed 39 trading signals this week, with 25 wins and 14 losses, navigating the unpredictable market swings.

Gold Reaches Another Record High Close to $3,200

Gold prices staged an impressive comeback after steep losses late last week. Following an aggressive selloff that saw prices fall over $200 and dip below $3,000 for the first time since mid-March, gold found support at its 50-week moving average. Since then, momentum has returned, and prices surged over $200 to hit new record highs above $3,190.

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

Silver Reclaims $32 but Trails Gold

Silver followed a similar but more volatile trajectory. After spiking above $34.50 earlier in the year, silver retreated sharply to a low of $28.05 during last week’s panic. However, it has since rebounded and is now trading above $30, with the 50-day moving average at $30.80 acting as the next resistance level.

Silver XAG/USD – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

MAs Keep Pushing BTC Highs Lower

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Ripple XRP Remains Below $2

Ripple (XRP) showed exceptional resilience despite the broader crypto pullback. It attracted strong demand at key technical levels—holding firm at $2.20, $2.00, and near $1.80—thanks to consistent support from its 200-day moving average. These repeated rebounds suggested a healthy appetite for XRP on dips.

In a dramatic shift today, crypto markets surged in parallel with one of the most powerful equity rallies in recent memory. Ripple led the charge, breaking back above the $2 level in a show of technical strength and investor conviction. But, yesterday the p rice returned below $2 again.

XRP/USD – Daily Chart