btc-usdSkerdian Meta•Thursday, April 10, 2025•3 min read Add an article to your Reading ListRegister now to be able to add articles to your reading
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Skerdian Meta•Thursday, April 10, 2025•3 min read
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Though uncertainties surrounding global trade and inflation persist, for now, market bulls can claim a decisive win. How long the momentum lasts will depend on whether this week’s CPI data confirms a disinflationary trend—and whether the trade truce holds.
Yesterday, the day started with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting early in the morning, which delivered another 2 bps rate cut, bringing the Official Cash Rate down to 3.50. However, the price action in NZD/USD was muted, as the focus of the markets was on trade tariffs.
Financial markets began the day on edge, rattled by a dramatic surge in global bond yields that sparked concerns of systemic stress and flashbacks to past crises. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields surged past 5%, rising sharply from 4.32% earlier in the week. The move triggered fears reminiscent of the UK bond market dislocation that contributed to Liz Truss’s political downfall.
Stock futures stumbled on the back of these moves, as investor sentiment deteriorated further. But as the U.S. session wore on, market dynamics shifted dramatically. President Donald Trump took notice of both the bond turmoil and warnings from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who voiced renewed recession concerns. In response, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of planned tariffs for all countries except China, where levies would increase to 125%. A blanket 10% baseline tariff would still be applied globally, but the pause in escalation signaled some relief.
Trump’s social media message urging markets to “be cool” was followed by a dramatic reversal. U.S. equity indices rallied across the board, with major benchmarks gaining around 10% and tech stocks jumping nearly 20%. The currency market reflected this reversal too—USD/JPY surged 300 pips, while AUD/USD gained 150 pips. The broader risk-on move was reinforced by hopes that trade tensions could ease further during the upcoming 90-day window.
However, this may only be a temporary reprieve. The introduction of sweeping 10% tariffs and a punitive 125% rate on Chinese imports still marks a sharp escalation from previous levels. Many observers remain skeptical that meaningful trade agreements with over 70 countries can be struck within the tight 90-day deadline. There’s a growing sense that U.S. trade policy is being shaped in real time, with markets forced to adjust on the fly.
Today’s Forex Events
Meanwhile, jobless data and inflation readings remain in focus. Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 223,000, up slightly from 219,000 the week prior. Continuing claims are projected to dip slightly to 1.88 million. On the inflation front, the latest U.S. CPI figures are forecast to show year-over-year price growth cooling to 2.6%, with month-over-month inflation slowing to 0.1%. Core CPI is seen at 3.0% annually. These figures will be closely watched as the Federal Reserve weighs its next steps.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, saying the Fed’s priority remains keeping inflation expectations anchored. This suggests policymakers remain cautious and are not yet ready to ease monetary policy despite signs of cooling prices.
The U.S. stock market and the dollar experienced weakness throughout the week apart from Friday when it reclaimed some of the losses, with extreme volatility dominating trading activity. As a result, we executed 39 trading signals this week, with 25 wins and 14 losses, navigating the unpredictable market swings.
Gold Rebounds $100 and Reclaims $3,000
In the commodities market, gold saw sharp declines late last week, falling over $200 from its recent peak and closing below the $3,000 mark for the first time since March 17. The decline came in the wake of the surprise tariff announcements, which triggered a wave of global risk aversion. Gold plunged over 3% in Friday’s session alone, as economic concerns and market stress deepened. However, gold managed to find a foothold at the 50-week simple moving average, historically a reliable support zone, which helped stabilize the price as the new week began.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
Silver Returns Above $30
Silver followed a similar but even more volatile path. After climbing over $5 year-to-date, it ran into stiff resistance around $34.50. Last week’s retreat sent it tumbling 15% to as low as $28.05, before a bounce above the $30 level this morning. That said, silver faces a new test at $30.80, a level where the 50-day moving average now acts as resistance.
Silver XAG/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Slips Below $80K
Cryptocurrencies also reflected the recent volatility. Bitcoin surged by $5,000 last week after dovish Fed signals but faced resistance near its 20-day moving average. After slipping below its 200-day average, it declined past $75,000, although a rebound above key support has kept buyers engaged. Yesterday they returned at full force after Donald Trumps comments, which sent BTC $8,000 higher and above $80K again.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Makes the Bearish Break
Ripple (XRP), meanwhile, demonstrated notable resilience. Even as sentiment in digital assets wavered, XRP found strong demand at every major technical level. Buyers stepped in first at $2.20, then below $2.00, and again just under $1.80—where the 200-day SMA helped reinforce a solid floor. These repeated bounces confirmed deep interest in accumulating XRP during dips.
Today marked another turning point. Trump’s latest comments reignited optimism in the market, particularly among risk assets. Equities staged one of the strongest one-day rallies in recent memory, and cryptocurrencies surged in tandem. Ripple led the charge, snapping back above the $2 mark in a strong show of strength.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
www.fxleaders.com