btc-usdSkerdian Meta•Tuesday, April 8, 2025•3 min read Add an article to your Reading ListRegister now to be able to add articles to your reading li
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Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, April 8, 2025•3 min read
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Yesterday we saw a strong rebound in US stocks after opening with a massive gap lower, on tariff freeze news, which could extend the bullish move further if countries start to negotiate.
Markets Rebound from “Black Monday” Fears, but Uncertainty Remains
Global markets kicked off the week under heavy pressure, rattled by growing speculation of a “Black Monday” event following intense selling across Asian exchanges. European and Asian futures plunged by up to 5%, amplifying concerns over escalating trade tensions and looming U.S. tariffs. In the early hours of the U.S. session, stocks opened sharply lower, continuing the wave of selling with deep bearish gaps across indices.
U.S. Session Brings Modest Relief
Despite the early panic, investor sentiment began to stabilize as the U.S. session unfolded. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day in negative territory once again, the Nasdaq Composite managed to eke out slight gains—an encouraging sign amid otherwise gloomy market action.
Much of the day’s recovery was driven by rumors that President Trump may delay tariffs scheduled to take effect by the close of Tuesday’s U.S. session. Speculation intensified after viral tweets alleged that Kevin Hassett, an economic advisor, had hinted at a possible 90-day moratorium on the duties. The prospect of new negotiations with countries requesting meetings also helped ease tensions.
Interestingly, analysts noted that Trump had yet to issue a formal executive order targeting China tariffs, leaving the situation fluid. Markets were quick to respond: some U.S. equities soared as much as 7% on hopes of a tariff pause, though foreign exchange markets remained more muted in reaction.
Bond Yields Fuel Dollar Recovery
U.S. Treasury yields surged between 12 and 25 basis points during the session, lending significant support to the dollar across FX markets. The rise in yields contributed to a broader recovery in USD strength, particularly against lower-yielding currencies. Despite light data flows—with only the Canadian Ivey PMI on the calendar—traders remained focused on potential tariff headlines, underscoring a market driven more by political developments than economic fundamentals.
Today’s Forex Events
With a relatively light economic calendar today—highlighted only by the expected decline in Canada’s Ivey PMI—market participants are turning their attention almost entirely to developments surrounding trade policy. The absence of fresh macroeconomic data has left investors highly reactive to any updates or rumors about potential shifts in U.S. tariff plans.
This environment suggests that traders are less focused on anticipating outcomes through analysis and more inclined to wait for concrete headlines before making decisive moves. As things stand, optimism could return to risk assets if there’s more clarity or optimism around the possibility of tariff delays or renewed negotiations between the U.S. and affected countries.
On the other hand, if the rhetoric remains confrontational or policy announcements turn more aggressive, we may see selling pressure reemerge quickly. In such a fragile atmosphere, sentiment remains delicately balanced, and market direction could easily pivot on a single headline.
The U.S. stock market and the dollar experienced weakness throughout the week apart from Friday when it reclaimed some of the losses, with extreme volatility dominating trading activity. As a result, we executed 39 trading signals this week, with 25 wins and 14 losses, navigating the unpredictable market swings.
Gold Closes Below $3,000
Gold, often viewed as a safe-haven during periods of volatility, failed to sustain recent gains. Following Wednesday night’s tariff news, the precious metal briefly surged to a new high of $3,167, supported by risk-off flows. However, the move quickly reversed. The metal plunged by nearly $220 over the next sessions, settling below the $3,000 mark for the first time since mid-March. The reversal signals fading safe-haven demand, at least for now, as investors await clearer direction from U.S. policy makers.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
Volatility Remains High in USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair mirrored broader market uncertainty. Early in the week, strength in the U.S. dollar lifted the pair above the 0.8850 mark. However, momentum faded as global sentiment turned cautious, and strong resistance at the 100-day moving average capped the rally. As risk appetite waned, the pair dropped by roughly 3 cents, underscoring heightened sensitivity to broader risk dynamics.
USD/CHF – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns Above the Support After the Dip
Cryptocurrencies remain on edge. Bitcoin (BTC) initially rose by $5,000 last week after dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve hinted at a more accommodative stance. The rally, however, lost steam near the 20-day moving average. Once BTC slipped below the 200-day average, bearish momentum picked up, dragging the price down to $75,000. Still, a late-session recovery pushed it back above support levels, suggesting that bulls haven’t given up entirely.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Dives to $1.63 but Rebounds
Ripple (XRP) has also experienced notable volatility. Earlier in March, it spiked to $2.98 following news that President Trump had discussed digital assets in relation to a proposed National Crypto Reserve. But enthusiasm quickly faded once it became clear that XRP—along with Solana and Cardano—would not be included in the final framework. By Saturday, XRP had recovered slightly from sub-$2 levels to $2.07, finding support at $1.90. On Sunday, the price dipped again to $1.63 before rebounding and closing the day at $1.90.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
www.fxleaders.com