Yesterday’s Market WrapThe USD closed last week on a bullish run, after a jump in services activity and PCE price index, which gives the FED room for
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
The USD closed last week on a bullish run, after a jump in services activity and PCE price index, which gives the FED room for more hikes as the economy improves, not that they are needed. So, yesterday markets were concentrated on the US retail sales, which were expected to show a 3.7% decline in January, coming from a 5.6% jump in December. Although the December number was revised lower to 5.1%, while in January the decline was larger at -4.5%.
That sent the USD 50 pips lower initially as risk sentiment improved on hopes that the FED would pause with rate hikes soon, but the capital orders which strip out the defense and aircraft posted a healthy +0.8% increase. So, the retreat for the USD ended pretty soon. NZD was one of the weakest currencies yesterday, as retail sales posted a 0.6% decline in Q4.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today started with retail sales from Japan and Australia, which posted an increase in January. The GDP for Q2 was released from Switzerland a while ago, showing a 0.2% expansion in the economy. Later on we have the GDP report from Canada, which is expected to fall flat at 0.0% in December. Although markets will be more interested in teh US Conference Board consumer confidence, which is expected to show another improvement this month, as inflation slows.
Yesterday markets were quiet during the Asian and European session, with a slight bearish momentum in the USD, while risk assets were climbing higher. We decided to buy the USD but then came the jump on softer durable goods orders and we got caught on the wrong side with three trading signals. We tried to get back and got a winning Gold signal, but then the price action slowed again.
Selling Bounces in GOLD
Gold continues to slide lower, although we saw a retrace higher yesterday, which we saw as a good opportunity to go short on XAU. Gold has been facing resistance at Moving Average on the H1 chart, which has been pushing it down. We opened two sell Gold signals yesterday, one short term which closed in profit while the long term remains open.
XAU/USD – 60 minute chart
EUR/USD Testing the 100 SMA
EUR/USD has turned bearish since early February but yesterday we saw some bullish momentum as the price climbed higher. This pair moved around 100 pips higher yesterday although we are still bearish on this pair, and will try to sell retraces higher.
EUR/USD – 240 minute chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Cryptocurrencies have been on an uptrend since January, with Bitcoin pushing above $25,000 but pulled back down last week as the USD resumed the bullish momemtum and risk sentimet deteriorated. They are now in another consolidating period, although we saw some bullish momentum pick up yesterday, so let’s see if buyers will come back this week.
The 50 SMA Turning into Resistance for BITCOIN
Bitcoin buyers are showing some signs of exhaustion as it has retreated below moving averages on the H4 chart. BTC failed to hold above $25,000 three times earlier this month as the uptrend resumed from January and now moving averages have turned into resistance, with the 50 SMA (yellow) rejecting the price yesterday.
BTC/USD – 240 minute chart
The 50 SMA Holding As Support for ETHEREUM
Ethereum has made some decent gains and it continues to remain bullish on the daily chart, although it is also finding it hard to hold gains above $1,700. The 50 SMA (yellow) is holding as support on the daily chart and it is pushing the lows higher.
ETH/USD – 240 minute chart
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