btc-usdSkerdian Meta•Thursday, March 6, 2025•3 min read Add an article to your Reading ListRegister now to be able to add articles to your reading l
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Skerdian Meta•Thursday, March 6, 2025•3 min read
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Today the ECB is expected to cut interest rates, but the attention will likely be on tariff talk again, which will drive markets around.
The U.S. dollar weakened further as uncertainty over trade tariffs continued to weigh on sentiment. EUR/USD surged to a four-month high, breaking above its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 6. The euro was the strongest major currency of the day, gaining across the board, while the Swiss franc was the weakest, despite an increase in Swiss CPI inflation for February.
European markets showed support for Germany as CDU leader Friedrich Merz moved forward with a €500 billion public works investment plan over ten years as part of coalition negotiations. Although Merz initially campaigned on fiscal restraint, his willingness to increase borrowing for defense spending helped secure a deal with the SPD, though discussions continue over welfare spending offsets.
In the U.S., economic data was mixed. ADP employment increased by 77K, well below the 140K forecast, raising concerns about the labor market. The ISM Services PMI improved to 53.5 from 52.6, with employment and new orders also strengthening. The S&P Global Services PMI came in stronger than expected at 51.0 versus 49.7, but the dollar struggled to capitalize on this. Despite the data, the dollar continued to fall as investors reacted positively to reports that auto tariffs could be delayed by another month. Further optimism came from a phone call between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which helped ease market tensions.
Tech stocks led a broad market rebound, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.46%, fueled by renewed optimism over a potential tariff reprieve. The Dow Jones closed 485 points higher, up 1.14% at 43,006, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.12% to 5,842 points.
Crude oil prices fell further following another increase in U.S. EIA reserves, pushing WTI down to $65.20 before recovering above $66 by the close of the U.S. session.
Today’s Market Expectations
The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 2.50%. However, the attention will still be on the tariff talk. The upcoming Eurozone Flash CPI report will likely impact expectations for future cuts, as policymakers remain concerned about a tight labor market and persistent services inflation, which has stayed near 4% since November 2023.
IN the U.S., the Jobless Claims report remains a key release, with initial claims expected at 235K, up from 242K last week, and continuing claims rising to 1.883 million from 1.862 million. While recent data has shown some relief, continued claims remain near cycle highs, signaling labor market uncertainty.
The depreciation of the US dollar fueled volatility in currency, shares, and commodities, resulting in increased trading activity. The US dollar continues to fall as tariffs are postponed. Crude oil prices also fell further. As a result, we opened a large number of trading signals and closed 8 deals across all marketplaces before the day ended. Six of our forex signals were winners, while two were losers.
Gold Rebound Continues
Gold reversed higher this week, reclaiming the $2,900 level, continuing its recovery after a February decline. The metal hit record highs above $2,956 before pulling back but has remained in demand in both risk-on and risk-off environments. A key support level at $2,832 has attracted buyers, and gold has turned bullish in the last two days, climbing past $2,915.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
AUD/USD Retesting the 100 Daily SMA
Meanwhile, AUD/USD has struggled to maintain gains, even briefly climbing above 0.6250 in February. The 50-day SMA served as a powerful resistance, stopping additional upward. Since late January, moving averages have regularly pushed the pair lower, making it harder for bulls to recover control. In February, AUD/USD fell below 0.61, reaching values last seen in 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 crisis. The continuous failure to break resistance indicates that the market is still negative, but the weak USD aided this pair yesterday, sending it toward the 100 daily SMA.
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Rebounds
The stock and crypto markets experienced heavy swings, largely due to uncertainty over tariffs and global trade policies. The U.S. dollar’s weakness contributed to volatility across forex, equities, and commodities, leading to heightened trading activity. Bitcoin saw a major sell-off last week, dropping from $110,000 on January 20 to below $80,000. However, BTC bounced back to $95,000 on Sunday, finding strong support at the 200-day SMA. By Monday, sellers regained control, dragging Bitcoin below $82,000, wiping out most of its gains from Trump’s crypto reserve announcement and triggering over $1 billion in futures liquidations. Bitcoin stabilized above the 200-day SMA on Tuesday as speculation of a tariff delay grew, and by Wednesday, BTC climbed $4,000, crossing the $90,000 mark following comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Finds Support at the $2.20 Support Level
XRP surged 50% on Sunday, rebounding from below $2, following Trump’s announcement that Ripple, Solana, and Cardano would be part of the U.S. national cryptocurrency reserve. The rally pushed XRP near the $3 resistance level, but buyers failed to break through, leading to a sharp reversal down to $2.2150. However, as market sentiment improved, risk assets rebounded, and the $2.20 support level held, allowing XRP to recover to $2.50. For XRP to continue its bullish momentum, buyers must push above $3, while a drop below $2.20 could trigger renewed selling pressure.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
www.fxleaders.com