A pivotal day for forex markets, with the Fed policy meeting and earnings from Disney, Uber, and AppLovin likely to stir volatility.Skerdian Meta•Wed
Quick overview
- The forex markets are bracing for volatility due to the Fed policy meeting and earnings reports from major companies like Disney and Uber.
- Concerns over US trade policy are growing, with limited agreements and a lack of dialogue with China contributing to market unease.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen.
- Despite a mixed economic outlook, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady rates, while upcoming earnings reports will be crucial for shaping market sentiment.
A pivotal day for forex markets, with the Fed policy meeting and earnings from Disney, Uber, and AppLovin likely to stir volatility.
Trade Worries Grow Amid Uncertainty
Markets are increasingly uneasy over the United States’ lack of clear direction on trade policy. While a fresh leak suggested a possible agreement between the US and UK, it appears limited in scope—mainly covering automotive and steel sectors, offering little in terms of broader trade resolution. Concerns were further stoked by recent remarks from key figures. Bessent noted that no meaningful dialogue with China is underway, while former President Trump told Mark Carney that future US trade agreements will be dictated by American terms.
Some Positives in Diplomatic Tone
Despite the heightened trade tensions, Trump did indicate a more conciliatory tone toward Canada, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship. However, this positive note was not enough to soothe broader market nerves, as selling pressure continued on the US dollar, while gold surged in demand—both signals of rising investor anxiety.
Geopolitical Flashpoints Boost Safe-Haven Demand
Late in the session, fresh tensions between India and Pakistan added another layer of risk. Reports emerged of India launching strikes into Pakistani territory. Given both nations are nuclear-armed, the situation added to risk aversion, pushing gold and the Japanese yen higher on safe-haven flows.
FX Markets React as Risk Sentiment Shifts
The Australian dollar saw renewed strength, with the AUD/USD pair approaching the 0.6500 level for the first time this year. The rally continues a recovery from recent lows, particularly around Liberation Day.
The euro also gained some ground following Friedrich Merz’s successful confirmation vote. However, the move was short-lived and largely mirrored broader USD weakness rather than euro-specific strength.
Today’s Market Outlook
Today’s earnings lineup spans key sectors—AI, energy, consumer health, streaming, EVs, and fintech, while the FED meeting will be in between. The results will be crucial in shaping market sentiment for Q2.
Fed Policy Outlook: Holding Steady for Now
Despite mixed economic data, including weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figures, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady. Labor market strength and rising incomes are keeping consumer spending afloat. Still, Wells Fargo analysts caution that expanding credit spreads, falling equity markets, and declining business and consumer confidence point to growing caution—especially in light of rising input costs and investment slowdowns. With this backdrop, the Fed is likely to adopt a “wait and see” stance, especially as trade tensions complicate its dual mandate by exerting pressure on both inflation and employment.
Upcoming Major Earnings Reports Ahead
Wednesday (Pre-Market)
- Uber: Growth in mobility and delivery to be assessed.
- Disney: Streaming margins, park performance, restructuring in view.
- Novo Nordisk: GLP-1 drug demand remains central (Ozempic/Wegovy).
Wednesday (After Hours)
- AppLovin / Arm: Digital ad momentum and chip licensing outlook.
- Carvana: Signals on used car demand.
- DoorDash: Consumer food delivery trends.
- Dutch Bros: Quick-serve beverage sales health check.
Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with gold retreating as a result, the EUR/USD falling to 1.13, and stock markets continuing upward. The moves weren’t too big, but we opened 37 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Rallies on Uncertainty, But Retraces Slightly
Gold continued to draw strong interest as a hedge against both inflation and geopolitical instability. Prices surged past $3,400, climbing more than $500 from recent lows to hit a record high of $3,444. However, as optimism around global trade improved later in the week, gold pulled back below $3,300 before stabilizing just above $3,200. Despite this correction, safe-haven demand remains strong, and recent gains suggest investor conviction in the metal’s long-term strength.
Yen Struggles Despite Earlier Safe-Haven Support
Meanwhile, the yen saw brief appreciation on geopolitical fears but remains structurally weak. The USD/JPY pair rebounded nearly six yen from previous lows, supported by the 100-month SMA. Overall sentiment toward the yen remains fragile, driven by dollar strength and global risk appetite.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Pushes Higher, XRP Holds Ground
Bitcoin broke decisively above the $93,000 level, moving past its 100-day moving average and briefly touching $95,000. The strong rally has reaffirmed bullish sentiment in digital assets, with technical momentum favoring continued upside—even as the market remains vulnerable to short-term corrections.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
XRP Chart Weekly – Ripple Finds Support at the 20 SMA
Meanwhile, XRP has traded steadily, bouncing off strong support between $1.80 and $2.20. It continues to hover near the upper end of its recent range and remains above its 50-day moving average. If broader crypto market sentiment stays positive, technical signals point to further gains for XRP as well.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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