GBP/USD Volatility Spikes Forward of Key UK Election Ballot

MARKET DEVELOPMENT –GBP/USD Volatility Spikes Forward of Key UK Election Ballot

DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

GBP: Marginal beneficial properties for the Pound as market members await the YouGov MRP ballot at 2200GMT. As a reminder, this was the ballot that had predicted a hung parliament in 2017, nonetheless, take into account that this ballot had first been launched through the 2017 election marketing campaign. Nonetheless, in a single day Sterling implied volatility are notably elevated at 11.05vols, which in flip indicators an implied transfer of 62pips.

YouGov MRP Ballot 2017 vs Precise Outcome

Election Mannequin

• Conservatives 302, Labour 269, Lib Dems 12

Precise Outcome

• Conservatives 317, Labour 262, Lib Dems 12

USD: The US Dollar picked up following a slew of higher than anticipated financial information with the secondary GDP studying exhibiting a 0.2ppt revision larger to 2.1%, whereas sturdy items information had additionally shocked on the upside. (full report) In flip, the Euro edged under the 1.1000 deal with with eyes on the Nov 14th low at 1.0987.

AUD: The Australian Greenback remained gentle because the foreign money continued to digest the newest commentary from RBA Governor Lowe concerning QE. Experiences from native banks be aware that they’re extra bearish on the RBA with Westpac calling for 2 2020 price cuts and H2 2020 QE, which in flip has seen the Aussie on the backfoot.

Supply: DailyFX, Refinitiv

Financial Calendar…