Gold (XAU/USD) closed Friday at $3,319 after a moderate bounce from midweek lows after hitting the ascending trendline and 50-EMA support...Arslan Bu
Quick overview
- Gold (XAU/USD) closed at $3,319 after bouncing from support levels, with traders preparing for significant US economic data this week.
- The US Dollar Index rose to 99.51, limiting gold’s gains despite a decline in Treasury yields and deteriorating consumer sentiment.
- Key economic releases this week include JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and GDP data, which could influence gold prices.
- Technically, gold is in a long-term uptrend, with a breakout above $3,370 potentially leading to higher targets of $3,431 and $3,501.
Gold (XAU/USD) closed Friday at $3,319 after a moderate bounce from midweek lows after hitting the ascending trendline and 50-EMA support at $3,306. Today is Saturday and traders are positioning for a big week ahead with key US data that will impact gold.
Last week gold struggled as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.51, capping gains despite a pullback in Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.266% and real yields fell to 1.968%. Easing tensions between the US and China briefly lifted risk sentiment before President Trump’s tariff comments reversed the mood and strengthened the dollar and weighed on gold.
Consumer sentiment also deteriorated with the April University of Michigan Index falling to 52, one of the lowest readings since the 1970s. Short term inflation expectations surged to 6.5% making it harder for the Fed to cut rates later this year.
Economic Events That Could Drive Gold Next Week
Several high-impact U.S. economic releases are due this week:
Weaker GDP and soft labor market expectations could boost gold if data disappoints. But sticky inflation readings could strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold.
Technical Outlook: Gold Eyes Break Above $3,370
Technically gold is in a long term uptrend above the trendline from the early April lows. MACD is still negative but improving and could turn bullish if buying continues.
Trade Setup for the Coming Week:
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Buy Entry: Breakout above $3,370
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Upside Targets: $3,431 and $3,501
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Support Levels: $3,306 and $3,268
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Stop-Loss: Below $3,260
For new traders this is a classic trend continuation trade: wait for a confirmed breakout above $3,370 with volume or bullish candlestick confirmation like an engulfing pattern or MACD crossover.
Gold is bullish unless $3,268 breaks. Volatility will be high midweek with GDP and employment data—be nimble.
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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